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Cosmo First LtdQ2 FY23

Cosmo First Ltd Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 822P/E: 13.7Market Cap: ₹2.0K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Specialty films portfolio expected to continue delivering superior returns despite near-term challenges in BOPP and BOPET segments.
  • Specialty chemicals division aims to double its revenue in the coming years.
  • Zigly pet care business is rapidly growing with month-on-month increasing sales, targeting profitability within two years (2025-2026).
  • BOPP volumes are already growing due to new line additions; revenue growth expected as raw material prices stabilize and rise.
  • Specialty sales, after a recent slowdown, are showing signs of recovery and expected to grow again in the near term.
  • New capacity expansions (e.g., specialty polyester films like shrink label and sun shield) will further strengthen margins and revenue.
  • Inventory losses due to raw material price fluctuations are expected to stabilize, possibly aiding revenue growth.
  • Overall, the company anticipates volume and revenue growth with improved margins over the next few quarters and years.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Specialty films portfolio expected to deliver superior returns despite near-term challenges in BOPP and BOPET segments.
  • Specialty chemicals division projected to double its revenue over the coming years.
  • Zigly (pet care business) showing rapid revenue growth; expected to become profitable in 2 years (2025-2026).
  • BOPET segment currently under margin pressure due to oversupply; EBITDA breakeven anticipated within 1-1.5 years.
  • Cost rationalization initiatives underway, targeting Rs. 50-60 Cr annualized savings, largely from renewable power and raw material savings, phasing benefits starting Q2 FY24.
  • New capacity additions (BOPP and CPP lines) to increase production by 45-50% by March 2025, supporting growth and improving margins.
  • Promoters optimistic about unlocking significant value in next 4-5 years, reflected in recent promoter stake increase.
  • Overall, positive outlook for gradual margin recovery and higher volumes, with focus on innovative specialty products and expansion driving future earnings growth.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • As of June 2023, Cosmo First Ltd's net debt stood at approximately Rs. 450 Cr.
  • The company plans incremental CAPEX of around Rs. 400-Rs. 450 Cr over the next two years.
  • A large part of this CAPEX is expected to be funded from internal accruals.
  • Overall debt may increase to some extent, depending on profitability over the coming years.
  • No explicit mention of new equity fundraising was made during the call.
  • Promoters have recently increased their stake, indicating confidence, but this pertains to equity holding, not fresh equity issuance.
  • Management's focus appears to be on leveraging internal funds and possibly some debt increase, with no formal announcement of new fundraising at this stage.

Order book

  • The transcript provided does not specifically mention details about the current or expected order book or pending orders for Cosmo First Ltd.
  • However, management indicated that specialty film sales showed improvement with better specialty sales and an increase in specialty volume to about 65% of total BOPP volume.
  • They highlighted ongoing growth in Zigly (pet care segment) with monthly sales increasing, though this segment is currently EBITDA negative.
  • There is a focus on continued capacity expansion projects for BOPP and CPP lines, expected to increase production capacity by 45%-50% by March 2025, indicating positive order inflows or expected demand.
  • The company expects demand supply balance in BOPP to improve in coming quarters, signaling improving order traction.
  • Specialty chemicals division is in growth mode with expected doubling of revenues in future years.
  • Overall, the outlook suggests a gradual ramp-up in orders with focus on specialty films and new business lines, but exact order book details were not disclosed.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Total CAPEX for specialized BOPET line is Rs. 450 Cr; Rs. 100 Cr of this is for value-added section.
  • Capacity of specialized BOPET line is close to 30,000 tonnes; most came online last year, balance with window film line this year.
  • Incremental CAPEX over next two years is Rs. 400-450 Cr, mostly funded from internal accruals; debt may increase from Rs. 450 Cr currently.
  • Recent Rs. 55 Cr CAPEX allocated for Sun Shield and Rs. 32 Cr for second capacitor; window film CAPEX also ongoing.
  • BOPP and CPP lines under construction will increase production capacity by 45-50% by March 2025; expected 3-5% cost rationalization.
  • Specialty chemicals division investing in R&D and innovation; Adhesive product commercialization expected within 3 months.
  • Ongoing cost specialization and R&D projects in films business to sustain competitive edge.

How does Cosmo First Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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1Cosmo First Ltd
Rev 3Mar 3

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