Cosmo First LtdQ3 FY24

Cosmo First Ltd Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 913P/E: 14.9Market Cap: ₹2.4K Cr

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Specialty sales expected to grow, targeting increase from 65% to 80% of total volume by FY25.
  • New specialty products like synthetic paper, shrink film, window film, capacitor films, and rigid packaging to drive future growth.
  • Zigly pet care vertical showing rapid growth with expanding retail and online presence; consolidation planned in H2 FY24 before next growth phase in FY25.
  • Rigid packaging business expecting Rs.70-80 Cr annual sales potential in Phase 1 within 12-18 months.
  • Capacitor film business expected to ramp up faster, aiming to fill capacity by Q4 FY24 with Rs.40-50 Cr revenue potential.
  • BOPP and CPP lines expansion to increase production capacity by ~50% by March 2025, improving cost efficiencies and supporting sales growth.
  • Export market demand showing revival, especially for specialty films; export proximity providing competitive advantage.
  • Near to medium-term outlook acknowledges challenges in BOPP/BOPET overall market but specialty portfolio expansion to support growth.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Near to medium-term outlook for BOPP and BOPET films remains challenging due to industry-wide supply overhang and capacity additions (Page 4).
  • Specialty films and strong specialty portfolios expected to support earnings and help improve margins (Page 15).
  • Company targeting 80% specialty chemical business by FY25, which should improve stability and EBITDA by 2.5%-3% incrementally (Pages 13, 9).
  • Cost rationalization initiatives, including renewable power and operational restructuring, expected to generate Rs.50-60 Cr annualized savings (Page 4).
  • New production lines (BOPP and CPP) will increase capacity by nearly 50% by March 2025 with a better cost proposition (Page 4).
  • Rigid packaging and metallized capacitor film businesses expected to scale up revenue, supporting diversification and growth (Pages 5, 8).
  • Export market improvement expected to revive specialty order flows starting next year, supporting revenue growth and margins (Pages 4, 13).
  • Overall, traction expected to return in coming quarters with revenue and margin growth on the back of specialty products and operational efficiencies (Page 15).

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Fundraise plans

  • The company is planning a CAPEX of about Rs. 490 Cr over the next two years, mainly for BOPP and CPP lines.
  • As of September 2023, the net debt stands at Rs. 502 Cr with a comfortable Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.7x and Debt/Equity of 0.4x, indicating a strong balance sheet.
  • There was no explicit mention of any immediate new fundraising through debt or equity in the current call transcript.
  • Management emphasized maintaining a healthy debt level and did not indicate plans for new equity issuance.
  • Overall, based on the discussion, no current or near-term plans for fresh fundraising via debt or equity have been disclosed.

Order book

  • Specialty volume in Q2 FY24 accounted for about 65% of total BOPP volume, up from 62% last year, indicating improving order flow in specialty films.
  • There was uneven/orders disruption from a high-margin specialty film export customer, but management expects the specialty order flow to resume from next year.
  • One particular specialty customer’s sales revival is expected next year, with some delays currently.
  • The company remains confident in capacity utilization, including for new lines, with no major concerns about unutilized capacity.
  • Despite industry-wide challenges and oversupply, Cosmo is progressing as per planned timelines for new projects and expects to fill new capacities fairly quickly due to branding and specialty product portfolio.
  • Management notes that orders have been stable with some recovery in specialty demand and expects further improvement next year.

Capex plans

Yes
  • The company plans a capex of about Rs. 490 Cr over the next two years focused on BOPP and CPP lines.
  • Work on BOPP and CPP lines is progressing as planned; these will be the world’s largest production capacity lines, increasing production capacity by close to 50% by March 2025.
  • New initiatives include:
  • - Launch of rigid packaging business (Cosmo Plastech) with Phase 1 capacity of 4,800 mtpa, targeting Rs. 70-80 Cr annual sales.
  • - Metallization of capacitor film capacity at 600 mtpa, serving the growing electronics industry.
  • Additional investment of Rs. 40-50 Cr in rigid packaging, with some projects ongoing into Q4.
  • Focus on expanding specialty films and continued R&D with new product launches.
  • Investment in renewable power to reduce cost and improve margins.
  • No current plans for backward integration into polypropylene resin production due to project scale.

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