Cosmo First Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Industrial Products

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company does not plan any major new film line orders or expansions for the next couple of years, implying limited large-scale CAPEX. - They anticipate CAPEX of about Rs. 150-200 crore in FY’26 focused on value-added assets. - Some increase in working capital will be required for BOPP and new businesses. - Debt is expected to peak in the current year and start reducing from FY’27, possibly falling significantly due to no major CAPEX. - Net debt reduction of Rs. 50-100 crore is expected in FY’26. - No explicit mention of new equity fundraising during the call. - Overall, short-term increases in debt for CAPEX are planned, but medium-term outlook is for declining debt levels with no announced equity raises.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- The company is planning a capex of Rs. 300 to 350 crore in FY '25 primarily for the new BOPP line and specialty sales enhancement projects. - CPP line is expected to start commercial production by Q3 or Q4 of FY '25. - BOPP line commercial production is targeted for the first half of FY '26; it will be one of the world's largest capacity lines, increasing production capacity by ~50%. - Additional injection moulding is planned for the rigid packaging (Plastech) vertical. - Plastech is expected to reach 90%+ utilization and profitability from FY '26. - Sun Control films commercialization and capacity expansion, including 80-100 product launches and network expansion, planned within the year. - Zigly pet care business may require ongoing investment; management expects break-even in 2-3 years. - Capex of 150-200 crore on value-added assets planned for the next year. - No major film line capex planned after FY '25, likely reducing debt by FY '27.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Specialty sales are growing steadily, with a 13% increase on a YTD basis compared to last year and currently comprising 70% of total volumes in Q2 FY'25, targeting 80% by FY'26. - New CPP and BOPP lines (world's largest production capacity) are expected to start commercial production between Q3 FY'25 and H1 FY'26, increasing production capacity by ~50%. - Specialty chemical division has a current run rate of Rs. 200 crores and capacity to reach Rs. 300-350 crores at full utilization; growing well with high-teens EBITDA expected in FY'25. - Rigid packaging vertical (Plastech) targets Rs. 125-150 crores revenue and 8-10% EBITDA in FY'26, expected to break even and achieve 90%+ utilization. - Sun control films and paint protection films are poised for commercialization and valued addition to revenue streams, with significant market potential. - Zigly pet care business is expected to break even and contribute positively within 2-3 years. - US and Japan market sales are expanding, with US revenue expected to reach $40 million this year, scaling to $55-60 million.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Specialty sales expected to grow further with FY’25 already showing 13-14% higher specialty sales year-to-date. - Specialty chemical vertical targeting high-teens EBITDA and 30%+ return on capital employed in FY’25. - Rigid packaging (Plastech) expected to achieve profitability and 90%+ capacity utilization from FY’26 onwards. - CPP line commercial production expected from Q3/Q4 FY’25; BOPP line from H1 FY’26, increasing production capacity by ~50%. - Sun control film and paint protection film businesses anticipated to be value drivers; sun control expected to commercialize by end FY’25. - Zigly (petcare) projected to break even within 2-3 years, becoming a significant value creator. - Overall margin expansion expected structurally with increased specialty share; 16-17% EBITDA margins targeted in 2-3 years. - Debt reduction anticipated post-FY’26, after peak CAPEX in FY’25-26. - Incremental growth in US, Japan, and Korea markets expected to boost revenues. Overall, strong earnings growth and margin expansion are anticipated over the next 2-3 years.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The order book for Specialty products is running at one of its highest levels ever as per Neeraj Jain (Page 8). - The company is experiencing strong demand growth in specialty films, which is contributing to positive order inflow. - New capacities, including planned BOPP and CPP lines, will help scale specialty volumes faster (Page 6). - Increased distributor network and market education efforts are ongoing for sun control films to grow their market share. - The company expects ramp-up in new product adoption within 1-2 years post introduction (Page 4). - Overall, a strong pipeline supports anticipated specialty sales growth of 13% YTD and expected 80% specialty volume by FY'26 (Page 2 and 6).