Cosmo First Ltd
Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Industrial Products
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company does not plan any major new film line orders or expansions for the next couple of years, implying limited large-scale CAPEX.
- They anticipate CAPEX of about Rs. 150-200 crore in FY’26 focused on value-added assets.
- Some increase in working capital will be required for BOPP and new businesses.
- Debt is expected to peak in the current year and start reducing from FY’27, possibly falling significantly due to no major CAPEX.
- Net debt reduction of Rs. 50-100 crore is expected in FY’26.
- No explicit mention of new equity fundraising during the call.
- Overall, short-term increases in debt for CAPEX are planned, but medium-term outlook is for declining debt levels with no announced equity raises.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- The company is planning a capex of Rs. 300 to 350 crore in FY '25 primarily for the new BOPP line and specialty sales enhancement projects.
- CPP line is expected to start commercial production by Q3 or Q4 of FY '25.
- BOPP line commercial production is targeted for the first half of FY '26; it will be one of the world's largest capacity lines, increasing production capacity by ~50%.
- Additional injection moulding is planned for the rigid packaging (Plastech) vertical.
- Plastech is expected to reach 90%+ utilization and profitability from FY '26.
- Sun Control films commercialization and capacity expansion, including 80-100 product launches and network expansion, planned within the year.
- Zigly pet care business may require ongoing investment; management expects break-even in 2-3 years.
- Capex of 150-200 crore on value-added assets planned for the next year.
- No major film line capex planned after FY '25, likely reducing debt by FY '27.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Specialty sales are growing steadily, with a 13% increase on a YTD basis compared to last year and currently comprising 70% of total volumes in Q2 FY'25, targeting 80% by FY'26.
- New CPP and BOPP lines (world's largest production capacity) are expected to start commercial production between Q3 FY'25 and H1 FY'26, increasing production capacity by ~50%.
- Specialty chemical division has a current run rate of Rs. 200 crores and capacity to reach Rs. 300-350 crores at full utilization; growing well with high-teens EBITDA expected in FY'25.
- Rigid packaging vertical (Plastech) targets Rs. 125-150 crores revenue and 8-10% EBITDA in FY'26, expected to break even and achieve 90%+ utilization.
- Sun control films and paint protection films are poised for commercialization and valued addition to revenue streams, with significant market potential.
- Zigly pet care business is expected to break even and contribute positively within 2-3 years.
- US and Japan market sales are expanding, with US revenue expected to reach $40 million this year, scaling to $55-60 million.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Specialty sales expected to grow further with FY’25 already showing 13-14% higher specialty sales year-to-date.
- Specialty chemical vertical targeting high-teens EBITDA and 30%+ return on capital employed in FY’25.
- Rigid packaging (Plastech) expected to achieve profitability and 90%+ capacity utilization from FY’26 onwards.
- CPP line commercial production expected from Q3/Q4 FY’25; BOPP line from H1 FY’26, increasing production capacity by ~50%.
- Sun control film and paint protection film businesses anticipated to be value drivers; sun control expected to commercialize by end FY’25.
- Zigly (petcare) projected to break even within 2-3 years, becoming a significant value creator.
- Overall margin expansion expected structurally with increased specialty share; 16-17% EBITDA margins targeted in 2-3 years.
- Debt reduction anticipated post-FY’26, after peak CAPEX in FY’25-26.
- Incremental growth in US, Japan, and Korea markets expected to boost revenues.
Overall, strong earnings growth and margin expansion are anticipated over the next 2-3 years.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The order book for Specialty products is running at one of its highest levels ever as per Neeraj Jain (Page 8).
- The company is experiencing strong demand growth in specialty films, which is contributing to positive order inflow.
- New capacities, including planned BOPP and CPP lines, will help scale specialty volumes faster (Page 6).
- Increased distributor network and market education efforts are ongoing for sun control films to grow their market share.
- The company expects ramp-up in new product adoption within 1-2 years post introduction (Page 4).
- Overall, a strong pipeline supports anticipated specialty sales growth of 13% YTD and expected 80% specialty volume by FY'26 (Page 2 and 6).
