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Cupid LtdQ4 FY25

Cupid Ltd Q4 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 183P/E: 149.5Market Cap: ₹16.2K CrSector: Personal Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 1

Margin

Category 1

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

4 of 4 growth signals are positive — a strong management growth story.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 1
  • Post expansion, expected revenue to rise close to Rs. 400 crores (vs. earlier Rs. 320 crores).
  • EBITDA anticipated to exceed Rs. 100 crores after expansion completion.
  • Capacity to increase by 300 million male condoms by end of 2024, adding to existing 480 million capacity.
  • Female condom sales expected to significantly rise in Q4 FY24, contributing Rs. 21 crores.
  • Target to double sales from Rs. 160 crores in FY23 over next 3-4 years, factoring in acquisition and expansion.
  • Expansion supported by acquisition plans both in India and internationally to broaden product portfolio (condoms and IVD kits).
  • Retail presence growing; currently in ~1,000 outlets with focus on Northern India as test market; gradual scale-up planned.
  • Operating margins aimed to improve, EBITDA margins targeted above 35%, PAT margins over 25% as sales grow.

Margin guidance

Category 1
  • Revenue is expected to expand from around Rs. 320 crores to close to Rs. 400 crores after completing the expansion plan.
  • EBITDA is expected to increase to upwards of Rs. 100 crores.
  • EBITDA margins for the current quarter are around 31.5%, with a target to keep it above 35%.
  • PAT margins currently in low 20s, aiming to increase over 25%.
  • Capacity expansion to add 3-4 new dipping lines by end of 2024, adding ~300 million units capacity.
  • Female condom sales expected to significantly boost topline, projected Rs. 50-55 crores in Q4 FY24.
  • Inventory days targeted to improve by 20%, reducing cash conversion cycle and enhancing ROCE.
  • Strategic acquisitions (domestic and international) planned to diversify product lines, especially adding polyisoprene and polyurethane condoms.
  • Overall optimistic about scaling operations and increasing profitability through expansion and acquisitions.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • Cupid Limited is raising approximately Rs. 385 crores through issuance of non-convertible warrants primarily to FIIs (financial investors), resulting in around 15% equity dilution by adding about 22 lakh shares.
  • The fundraise is targeted mainly for strategic acquisitions outside India in the condom and IVD segments, as well as a small portion allocated for working capital.
  • The funds from the preferential issuance are expected to be received within 18 months.
  • No specific plan for additional debt fundraising was mentioned.
  • The company has sufficient funds in the balance sheet for ongoing expansion, including land acquisition and capacity increase.
  • No plan to raise funds through promoter dilution or to provide board seats to new investors, as none will hold more than 5%.

Order book

  • Current order book: Rs. 80 crores
  • - Split: Rs. 50 crores male condoms, Rs. 30 crores female condoms
  • - Domestic vs International split: Roughly 10-15% domestic, 85-90% international
  • Expected orders in Q4 FY24 (Jan-Mar):
  • - South Africa: Both male and female condoms, approx. Rs. 50 crores (3rd year of 3-year contract)
  • - Brazil: Female condoms, expected tender and order ~Rs. 23 crores
  • - Government of India: Male condoms, recently announced Rs. 15 crores order and another ~Rs. 10 crores expected soon
  • - UNFPA (regular): Approx. Rs. 30 crores, mostly male condoms
  • Backlog related to female condoms in Q4 to be cleared: Rs. 21 crores
  • Revenue projection post-expansion: Close to Rs. 400 crores top line with EBITDA upwards of Rs. 100 crores.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Cupid Limited has acquired a land parcel and plans to commence new production lines within approximately two years as part of their expansion.
  • They are increasing male condom manufacturing capacity, aiming to add about 300 million units by the end of 2024, raising total capacity from 480 million units.
  • A significant portion of the recently raised Rs. 385-400 crore through share issuance is earmarked for strategic acquisitions, particularly outside India, targeting condom and IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics) businesses.
  • The company is focused on acquisitions that will expand product lines within the condom segment and potentially accelerate approvals for IVD products.
  • Apart from acquisitions, a small portion of funds will be used for working capital needs.
  • There are plans to bundle new products like deodorant sprays with existing offerings to enhance the product portfolio.
  • Overall, capital investments include capacity expansion at existing facilities and strategic acquisitions aimed at growth in domestic and international markets.

How does Cupid Ltd rank vs peers in Personal Products?

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1Cupid Ltd
Rev 1Mar 1

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