Deere & Company

Q1 FY21 Earnings Call Analysis

Industrials

Full Stock Analysis
capex: Yesfundraise: No informationrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 4orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The transcript does not explicitly mention any current or future plans for fundraising through debt or equity. - The company highlights a strong liquidity position and solid A credit rating. - In 2021, they returned over $3.5 billion in capital to shareholders and increased dividends, signaling strong cash flow and capital discipline. - They plan to invest more in strategic growth areas both organically and inorganically, including increased R&D and M&A activity. - There is no mention of issuing new debt or equity; the focus is on internal cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. - The company emphasizes maintaining financial strength while investing in growth and returning capital to shareholders.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Increased R&D investment by 17% in 2022, focused on accelerating technology development in autonomy, digital solutions, connectivity, and electrification. - Planned investments to enhance the tech stack, including sense and act capabilities, autonomous functions, and customer value creation. - Continued active M&A aligned with these strategic themes, exemplified by acquisitions like Harvest Profit and Bear Flag to enhance digital and autonomous solutions. - Forward-looking capital allocation aims to invest in areas with the highest differentiation and customer impact. - Additional infrastructure-related investments planned to unlock the next generation of customer experiences through technology. - Focus on balancing capital allocation between restructuring benefits and growth opportunities. - Emphasis on evolving business models, including subscription services, to support ongoing technology adoption and value delivery. - Capital spending aligned with supporting industry growth trends, especially in production and precision agriculture.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Net sales for construction and forestry forecasted to increase 10% to 15% in fiscal year 2022. - Equipment Operations expecting demand to exceed production, leading to low inventory levels continuing. - Large Ag products order books are full or near full, with strong demand sustained into 2022. - Expect ramp up in production and shipment of new combines (e.g., 1,000+ units of X9 in North America). - Small Ag and Turf sales expected to grow 15% to 20%, with North America flat but gains in global markets. - Continued growth for Precision Ag technologies like AutoPath and See and Spray expected to increase demand. - Anticipated market share maintenance or growth despite recent labor disruptions, with full-year sales growth likely. - Industry end markets for equipment projected to grow roughly 5% to 10%, including roadbuilding and forestry sectors.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Deere forecasts fiscal year 2022 net sales to increase broadly: - Production and Precision Ag net sales up 20-25%, with 20-21% operating margin. - Small Ag and Turf net sales up 15-20%, with 16-17% operating margin. - Construction and Forestry net sales up 10-15%, operating margin between 13.5-14.5%. - Net income attributable to Deere and Company projected at $6.5 billion to $7 billion for 2022. - Earnings per diluted share for 2021 was $18.99; strong performance expected to continue into 2022. - Headwinds from raw materials and logistics estimated at $2 billion, mainly impacting first half of 2022. - R&D investment increased 17% in 2022 to accelerate technology and product development, supporting growth. - Margins may face short-term pressure in Q1 2022 due to cost and lower production but expected to improve. - Company plans to focus on technology and customer value creation for sustainable profitable growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Early order programs are shaping up positively, with customer demand strong and balanced with supply availability. - The company typically buys roughly a quarter of raw materials ahead to manage supply and cost. - Steel prices have moderated slightly from peak levels recently. - There is an expectation of material headwinds of about $2 billion versus 2021, with roughly 80% from materials and 20% from freight. - About two-thirds of these headwinds are expected to impact the first half of 2022. - Demand is currently outstripping the industry's ability to produce, leading to very low inventories in both new and used equipment. - Dealers report early order activity is strong, with capex increases indicating optimism around workload increases in 2022. - The company remains confident in its ability to deliver products for the planting season despite recent work stoppages and supply chain challenges.