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Den Networks LtdQ2 FY18

Den Networks Ltd Q2 FY18 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 31.2P/E: 7.5Market Cap: ₹1.2K CrSector: Entertainment

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Year 1 broadband rollout in 100 cities targets ~50,000 new subscribers; Year 2 and 3 expected to see ramped and faster growth respectively.
  • Broadband penetration currently at ~6%, with top cities up to 17-18%; significant room for expansion in wireline broadband market.
  • ARPU for broadband set at an aggressive Rs. 500-550, justified by superior service speeds (50MB) and unlimited data.
  • Content price hikes of 12%-15% being passed on from Q2 onwards, supporting revenue growth.
  • Subscription revenue saw 11% growth in Q1 FY2019 versus Q1 FY2018; Phase 3 exhibited 19% growth YoY.
  • Cable business to gain from HD services, potential explosion in HD value-added services (VAS), and broadband's two-way traffic advantage over DTH.
  • Cost optimization ongoing, with capex for broadband rollout around Rs. 30 Crores in Year 1, minimal additional capex expected in Year 2.
  • Overall, expected significant revenue growth over 3-5 years driven by new broadband services, cable enhancements, and ARPU stabilization.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • The company expects significant growth over the next 3-5 years driven by value-added services (VAS), HD, Super HD, and 4K offerings.
  • Broadband business is seen as a huge upside due to two-way traffic capability via existing fiber optic networks, which DTH cannot enable.
  • Broadband rollout in 100 cities with very low capex (~Rs.30 Crores in year one) is expected to ramp up subscriber numbers and revenues in years two and three.
  • ARPU in the new broadband model is aggressively set around Rs.500-550, supported by unmet broadband demand in key cities.
  • Price hikes of 12%-15% across all phases are expected to sustain and improve revenue.
  • Content cost increases are being passed on, with expected stabilization post-Tariff Order implementation.
  • Efforts to optimize costs continue, improving margins and profitability.
  • EBITDA margins for cable business currently at 16%, with broadband loss narrowing as scale improves.
  • Overall, profitability and earnings are expected to strengthen in ensuing quarters as broadband scale and price increases materialize.

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Fundraise plans

  • The company has outlined a low-capex plan for its broadband rollout, focusing on internal accruals to fund the investment.
  • For the initial 100 cities, the capex requirement is estimated at around Rs.30 Crores in the first year, with minimal additional capex expected in year two.
  • Further expansion to additional cities would require similar amounts of capex but still aligned with the low-capex, internally funded approach.
  • There is no explicit mention of plans for raising new debt or equity for fundraising in the provided transcript.
  • The focus is on leveraging internal resources and ensuring investments are commercially viable with payback structures involving subscribers.
  • No announcements or indications regarding future fundraising via debt or equity were discussed in the call.

Order book

The provided document (page 19 and surrounding pages) does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders for DEN Networks Limited. The discussion primarily focuses on: - Business outlook on cable and broadband services, - Monetization avenues from HD and VAS, - Implementation of the new tariff order, - Broadband rollouts and capex plans, - Regulatory environment and content costs. No specific details on order book size, pending orders, or contracts are available in the transcript shared. If you need information on order book or pending orders, it appears that this document does not provide such data.

Capex plans

Yes
  • In FY2019, DEN Networks planned a low capex strategy, with an estimated Rs. 30 Crores for the first year to cover 100 cities in the broadband rollout.
  • Year two for these 100 cities is expected to require minimal additional capex unless subscriber growth exceeds expectations.
  • If expansion continues to 200 cities or beyond, a similar capex (~Rs. 30 Crores) would be needed.
  • Broadband rollout capex (mostly last-mile connectivity) is capitalized; for Q1 FY2019, Rs. 19 Crores capex was reported.
  • Net capex for the year is expected not to exceed Rs. 50 Crores (excluding activation revenue).
  • Investment leverages existing fiber infrastructure, including DEN's Rs. 2500 Crores investment in digital infrastructure nationwide.
  • Strategic emphasis is on incremental investments driven by subscriber payback and technology upgrades, minimizing upfront large capital expenditure.

How does Den Networks Ltd rank vs peers in Entertainment?

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