Den NetworksQ1 FY19

Den Networks Q1 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: ₹26.15P/E: 8.3Market Cap: ₹1.2K CrSector: Entertainment

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Year 1 broadband rollout in 100 cities targets ~50,000 new subscribers; Year 2 and 3 expected to see ramped and faster growth respectively.
  • Broadband penetration currently at ~6%, with top cities up to 17-18%; significant room for expansion in wireline broadband market.
  • ARPU for broadband set at an aggressive Rs. 500-550, justified by superior service speeds (50MB) and unlimited data.
  • Content price hikes of 12%-15% being passed on from Q2 onwards, supporting revenue growth.
  • Subscription revenue saw 11% growth in Q1 FY2019 versus Q1 FY2018; Phase 3 exhibited 19% growth YoY.
  • Cable business to gain from HD services, potential explosion in HD value-added services (VAS), and broadband's two-way traffic advantage over DTH.
  • Cost optimization ongoing, with capex for broadband rollout around Rs. 30 Crores in Year 1, minimal additional capex expected in Year 2.
  • Overall, expected significant revenue growth over 3-5 years driven by new broadband services, cable enhancements, and ARPU stabilization.

See what Den Networks management said on margin guidance — free account, 30 seconds.

Fundraise plans

  • The company has outlined a low-capex plan for its broadband rollout, focusing on internal accruals to fund the investment.
  • For the initial 100 cities, the capex requirement is estimated at around Rs.30 Crores in the first year, with minimal additional capex expected in year two.
  • Further expansion to additional cities would require similar amounts of capex but still aligned with the low-capex, internally funded approach.
  • There is no explicit mention of plans for raising new debt or equity for fundraising in the provided transcript.
  • The focus is on leveraging internal resources and ensuring investments are commercially viable with payback structures involving subscribers.
  • No announcements or indications regarding future fundraising via debt or equity were discussed in the call.

See what Den Networks management said on order book — free account, 30 seconds.

Capex plans

Yes
  • In FY2019, DEN Networks planned a low capex strategy, with an estimated Rs. 30 Crores for the first year to cover 100 cities in the broadband rollout.
  • Year two for these 100 cities is expected to require minimal additional capex unless subscriber growth exceeds expectations.
  • If expansion continues to 200 cities or beyond, a similar capex (~Rs. 30 Crores) would be needed.
  • Broadband rollout capex (mostly last-mile connectivity) is capitalized; for Q1 FY2019, Rs. 19 Crores capex was reported.
  • Net capex for the year is expected not to exceed Rs. 50 Crores (excluding activation revenue).
  • Investment leverages existing fiber infrastructure, including DEN's Rs. 2500 Crores investment in digital infrastructure nationwide.
  • Strategic emphasis is on incremental investments driven by subscriber payback and technology upgrades, minimizing upfront large capital expenditure.

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How does Den Networks rank vs peers in Entertainment?

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