Evergy, Inc.

Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Electric Utilities

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Equity issuance plan remains unchanged: $700 million to $900 million per year from 2026 through 2029, totaling approximately $3.3 billion. - In 2026, $125 million of equity has already been priced. - No plans currently for a block equity issuance in 2026; remaining needs will be met through the ATM (at-the-market) program, gradually issuing equity over the year. - Credit metrics strengthen over the forecast period, reducing the need for additional equity in 2030. - Capital funding assumes 37% equity for the incremental capital plan with a general forward-looking assumption of 40% to 50% equity funding. - Debt funding and credit metrics are expected to improve, with FFO to debt ratios in the 14% to 15% range for 2026 to 2028, strengthening thereafter.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Forecasting a capital investment plan of $21.6 billion through 2030, with a rate base CAGR increasing to approximately 12% from 11.5% due to new ESA signings and amendments (Page 5). - Modest upside expected to the 5-year capital plan as outlined in upcoming Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) in Missouri and Kansas (Page 5). - IRPs will detail generation capacity projects required to serve signed large customer peak loads, supporting an all-of-the-above generation strategy (Pages 3 and 5). - Plans include investments in natural gas, energy storage, and solar resources to maintain a balanced generation portfolio (Page 3). - Upcoming multiple Certificates of Convenience and Necessity (CCN) filings in Missouri to advance generation strategy (Page 3). - Additional capital may be required for expansion opportunities and new ESAs beyond the current 5-year plan, with expected further ESAs in 2026 (Pages 6-7). - Equity issuance to fund capital needs remains $700–900 million annually from 2026-2029, primarily through ATM programs, with no current plan for block issuances in 2026 (Page 7).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Retail load growth CAGR of approximately 7% to 8% through 2030, up from previous 6% forecast (Page 5). - Load growth driven by 5 large Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) with steady-state peak load of ~3,000 MW (Page 2, 4, 10). - Additional upside potential from at least one more ESA expected in 2026 and expansions of existing ESAs (Page 2, 7, 10). - First quarter weather-normalized retail demand grew 4.7%, with strong residential (3.3%), commercial (3.8%), and industrial (10.1%) demand (Page 4). - Large load capacity revenues starting earlier in 2026, contributing to EPS benefits (Page 4). - Higher sales and revenues forecasted for 2026-2030 due to new and amended ESAs (Page 5). - Continued discussions with Tier 2 and Tier 3 customers indicating sustained exceptional load growth into 2030s (Page 2).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint at $4.24 per share. - Expect adjusted EPS growth to exceed 8% annually beginning in 2028 through 2030. - Upward bias on annual earnings growth from new and amended large electric service agreements (ESAs). - Accelerated revenue from fifth ESA and amendments to two previously signed ESAs, contributing to stronger earnings in 2026-2030. - Expected retail load growth CAGR of approximately 7% to 8% through 2030 (up from prior 6%). - Rate base CAGR projected to increase to ~12% (up from 11.5%), supporting earnings growth. - EPS growth projected to outpace rate base growth by around 250 basis points in later years. - Strengthened credit metrics with expected FFO to debt ratio of 14% to 15% (2026-2028), improving thereafter. - Additional ESAs expected in 2026, providing upside potential beyond the current financial plan.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Executed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs): 5 signed ESAs for data center projects under LLPS tariffs, totaling approximately 2.5 GW steady-state peak load. - Non-LLPS customers (e.g., Panasonic EV battery plant): Adds about 450 MW, bringing the total to 3 GW. - Expansion Opportunities: Approximately 1 to 1.5 GW potential expansions with existing ESA customers; not included in current 5-year financial plan. - Tier 2 Category: Advanced discussions for 1.5 to 3 GW with new customers who have land or letters of agreement; primarily post-2030 opportunities. - Tier 3 and Beyond: Over 10 GW additional pipeline showing sustained strong regional interest. - Confidence in signing at least one additional ESA in 2026. - Overall, robust pipeline with discussions and equipment reservations to support growth well into the 2030s.