Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) Ltd

Q3 FY21 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 2orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company currently has cash available of around Rs. 200 crores and an additional borrowing capacity of Rs. 400 crores, implying a total financial capacity of approximately Rs. 600 crores. - There is no explicit mention of plans for new debt or equity fundraising. - Management prefers to use internal cash generation for capital expenditure, particularly for technology upgradation, emission norms compliance, and new engine programs, avoiding the use of new debt. - The company is focused on maintaining financial credibility to serve global customers, with an emphasis on being debt-free in India to win business. - Dividend distribution is being evaluated but deferred until after stabilization of technology upgrades and production cycles. - The company is monitoring market volatility and evaluating opportunities but has not announced concrete plans for raising funds through debt or equity at this time.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- The company is investing approximately Rs. 90-100 crores in CAPEX for the financial year, with two-thirds allocated to technology upgradation and the rest for capacity expansion (Page 8). - Focus on making production lines more flexible to handle fluctuations between passenger car and two-wheeler demand due to regulatory changes and market conditions (Page 8). - Evaluating growth opportunities related to the transition to TGDI engines and steel pistons, which require significant investments (Page 8). - No major shift in the current business portfolio, but ongoing modernization, innovation, and technical application upgrades (Pages 7-13). - Cash reserves are being used strategically for technology upgradation, emission norms compliance, innovation, modernization, and supporting global customer credit viability rather than debt financing (Pages 7, 13, 14). - Monitoring and selectively investing in global technology transfer equipment suited to Indian operations rather than relocating entire lines globally (Page 10).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company expects a 10-12% increase in revenue potential from expanded capacity by around 2025, adding approximately Rs.120-150 crores on top of the existing Rs.1400-1500 crores annual run rate. - Growth opportunities are tied to new technologies like TGDI engines and steel pistons, especially with export engine projects commissioning their plants. - Global export business is expected to substantially shoot up post-semiconductor shortages, possibly from the second half of the next calendar year, driving significant traction. - The company is focusing on flexible manufacturing lines to handle passenger cars and two-wheelers to manage demand fluctuations efficiently. - Emission norm changes and adoption of CNG, biofuels, and hybrid engines present further growth potential through product modifications rather than diversification into new categories. - Market recovery is underway but remains volatile due to semiconductor shortages, commodity prices, and COVID impacts in key regions.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Current PAT margins are at the bottom, but steps are underway to improve margins through operational efficiencies and better recovery mechanisms. - Utilization levels were impacted by plant shutdowns but are expected to improve in H2, depending on OEM deliverables. - EBITDA margin in a normal business scenario is expected around 16%, factoring in volume growth, operational productivity improvements, and recovery of commodity cost escalations. - Cash generation remains strong (~Rs. 40-45 crores per quarter), with plans to invest in technology upgradation and capacity expansion related to TGDI engines and emission norm changes. - Expanded capacity can increase revenue potential by 10-12% over current capacity levels (~Rs. 1400 crores annual run rate). - Semiconductor shortages and supply chain volatility may continue to impact near-term earnings, but recovery is anticipated in the second half of the next calendar year. - Dividend distribution is being evaluated based on cash flow, CAPEX needs, and market conditions.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company highlighted a significant booking backlog with all OEMs, amounting to nearly five lakh (500,000) vehicles pending. - Due to the semiconductor shortage, this backlog will not be fulfilled immediately or at full pace. - Improvement in the semiconductor supply is expected to be gradual and step-by-step, not instant. - Better visibility from OEMs regarding chip availability is anticipated from December onwards. - The semiconductor shortage impact is expected to linger for the next two quarters, affecting order fulfillment and utilization. - OEMs, including major players like Maruti, are unable to immediately fulfill their total demand due to chip constraints. - The company is optimistic that the improved semiconductor supply situation will help address the backlog progressively.