Ganesha Ecosphere LtdQ2 FY23Textiles & Apparels

Ganesha Ecosphere Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

N/A

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 3 growth signals are positive.

Revenue guidance

Category 2

→Expected ramp-up of Warangal plant facilities with full utilization by FY25, starting with 25-30% capacity presently and aiming for 80-90% utilization by Q4 FY24.
→New production line for bottle-to-bottle (B2B) chips of 12,000 tonnes addition by October-November 2023, targeting 90% utilization and doubling total capacity to about 24,000 tonnes by FY25.
→Potential for further capacity expansion at the south plant adding 2-3 more lines, which could increase B2B capacity to approximately 50,000 tonnes.
→Growing demand driven by government regulations mandating rPET consumption starting FY25, with 30% consumption requirement initially and rising to 60% by 2028; market demand projected to reach 0.9 to 1 million tonnes by FY29-FY30.
→Expected revenue flow from new orders, including Moon Beverages and Coca-Cola bottlers, mainly starting Q3 FY24.
→Optimistic outlook on increasing revenues from value-added and filament yarn products alongside recycled PSF business growth.

→The company expects steady capacity utilization growth, targeting 80-90% by Q4 FY2024 and full utilization of 24,000 tonnes B2B capacity by FY2025.
→EBITDA margins for bottle-to-bottle (B2B) chips anticipated around 17-18% and 10%+ for recycled polyester staple fiber (PSF) even in down scenarios from Q3 onwards.
→The rPET segment demand is expected to grow significantly due to regulatory mandates (30% consumption by FY2025, rising to 60% by 2028), supporting sustained pricing and margins.
→Future expansions beyond the current lines are being considered, potentially increasing B2B capacity to ~50,000 tonnes at the south plant.
→Depreciation and interest costs will increase with new capacities, but operating cash flow normalization is anticipated as production ramps up.
→While Q1 showed lower profitability due to ramp-up and slow demand, management sees a recovery with better pricing and regulatory tailwinds in subsequent quarters.

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Yes

→Current total debt on books is around ₹550 Crores including working capital debt.
→Peak debt expected not to exceed ₹600 Crores at any point during ongoing expansions.
→Average cost of borrowing is about 8.5%.
→Long-term loan repayment schedule extends up to FY2032.
→No explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or equity in the provided transcript.
→Discussions around capacity expansion and project extensions are ongoing, but no confirmed new funding.
→Company is approaching government for incentives related to project extension, not original project.
→Current investment mode with limited surplus operating cash flow; repayments and capex ongoing.
→No concrete plans disclosed for fresh equity or debt raising at this stage in the document.

→Ganesha Ecosphere has received a commercial order from a Coca-Cola bottler, which is not a small trial but a significant engagement.
→They are in talks with other potential customers and expect more orders from other bottlers soon.
→Currently, no long-term contracts are in place with brands; the company is focusing on short-term orders due to pricing volatility.
→They expect revenue from the Moon Beverages order to start flowing from Q3 FY2024.
→The company is close to final approvals from several brands and hopeful to onboard them in the coming quarter.
→Another B2B chips production line will be installed by October-November 2023, expected to contribute from Q4 FY2024 onward.
→The company is also exploring international clients and ongoing discussions with some European bottling partners.

Yes

→Brownfield expansion: Second B2B line installation costing around ₹50 Crores (only machine cost, infrastructure/utilities already in place).
→Greenfield B2B plant: Estimated capex around ₹225-250 Crores for European-standard washing & granule line with 25,000 tonnes capacity.
→Current capacity addition: 12,000 tonnes line expected by October/November 2023; aiming 80-90% utilization by Q4 FY2024.
→Future capacity: Potential for adding 2-3 more lines at the south plant, possibly increasing B2B capacity to ~50,000 tonnes.
→Strategic plan: Board-level discussions ongoing for further capacity expansions, including geographical diversification depending on brand tie-ups and logistics.
→Focus areas: Preference to expand value-added product capacities over recycled polyester staple fibre, emphasizing high-margin segments like filament yarn and bottle-to-bottle chips.

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