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Godawari Power & Ispat LtdQ2 FY25

Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd Q2 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 269P/E: 26.1Market Cap: ₹19.4K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Pellet prices expected around INR 11,000–11,500 in Q2 and Q3, reflecting stable pricing with limited decline (~5%) due to forex impact.
  • Long products volumes steady (~0.4 to 0.5 million tons) with demand picking up from mid-July, supporting healthy margins.
  • Galvanized products volumes expected to grow, crossing 30,000 tons per quarter driven by PGCIL approvals and increased EPC company engagements.
  • CRM complex with 0.7 million ton capacity targeting INR 4–5/ton EBITDA from diversified value-added product mix.
  • Steel capex deployment planned mostly in FY'28 (60%), with increased volumes from pellet plants aiding free cash flows (~INR 3,000 crores from FY'27).
  • Battery storage segment targeting 10 GW capacity initially, with plans to scale to 40 GW, aiming for ~5% margin driven by high volume plays despite lower profitability.
  • Overall growth supported by gradual ramp-up of greenfield steel plant, pellet capacity, and value-added steel products.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Q1 EPS dropped from INR 4.5 to INR 3.5 primarily due to a fall in selling prices; volumes remained consistent.
  • Management finds it difficult to give a precise estimate for the full year as profitability depends heavily on selling prices.
  • They expect entering the busy season with prices starting to move up, indicating potential improvement in earnings.
  • Free cash flow expected to drastically improve from FY '27 onwards due to new pellet plant and mining approvals, targeting INR 3,000 crores minimum.
  • Planned greenfield steel plant capex (~INR 4,500-5,000 crores) spread mainly over FY '28 and FY '29, with manageable debt-equity ratios below 1:1.
  • Battery storage (BESS) business is low margin but volume-driven; expected ROI of 40-50% at 10 gigawatt scale.
  • CRM complex targets EBITDA of INR 4-5 per ton of finished product.
  • Overall, gradual recovery and growth expected in operating profits aligned with price improvements, volume growth, and diversification benefits.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • For the current announced capex of INR1,600 crores, the company plans to take on a small amount of debt around INR700-800 crores, maintaining a leverage below 0.5, well within a 1:1 debt-equity ratio.
  • The company generates about INR800 crores to INR1,000 crores of free cash annually, which will be utilized for ongoing and planned projects.
  • The larger greenfield steel plant capex (around INR4,500 to 5,000 crores) will commence only after mining EC approval and may increase debt depending on the situation but aims to keep peak leverage within 1:1.
  • No immediate equity fundraising mentioned; focus is on cash generation and manageable debt for capex.
  • Emphasis on careful financial management to avoid over-leverage and maintain healthy cash flow during market fluctuations.

Order book

The provided transcript does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders for Godawari Power & Ispat Limited. However, relevant details inferred from the discussion include: - Battery Electric Storage System (BESS) containers: - In August alone, market tenders for about 8 GW were announced. - Approximately 1,600 containers required for these bids (assuming 5 MW per container). - Current demand is robust and expected to grow month-on-month. - Over 95% of current demand is met via imports; company aims to capture share as local supplier. - Galvanized products: - Post regulatory approvals, volumes expected to grow beyond 30,000 tons per quarter. - CRM complex (cold-rolled coil products): - Targeting 0.7 million tons capacity with diversified products for stable demand. No specific total order book value or firm pending order figures were disclosed.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) project:
  • - Initial phase targeting 10 gigawatt container capacity, scaling up to 40 gigawatt.
  • - Capex ~INR700 crores, including INR250 crores for machinery and shelves; balance is working capital.
  • - Focus on assembling containers with potential tech tie-ups (equity or royalty models).
  • - Long-term strategy focusing 5-7 years ahead, with openness to future battery cell manufacturing depending on government policies.
  • Greenfield steel plant:
  • - Estimated capex INR4,500-5,000 crores.
  • - Deployment phased: 15-20% in FY '27, 60% in FY '28, and 20% in FY '29.
  • - Investment will proceed only after mining Environment Clearance (EC).
  • - Focus on long steel and value-added products.
  • CRM complex:
  • - Capacity of 0.7 million tons targeting EBITDA of INR4-5/ton.
  • Overall, expected peak debt under 1:1 debt-equity ratio, with ongoing projects costing about INR1,600 crores and planned utilization of free cash flow.

How does Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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