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Goodluck India LtdQ2 FY25

Goodluck India Ltd Q2 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 1,405P/E: 24.8Market Cap: ₹4.2K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Company targets 15% to 20% top-line growth for FY '26 and next 3-4 years.
  • Growth to come equally from multiple segments: defence, hydraulic tubes, automobile, infrastructure, forging, and solar.
  • Hydraulic tube plant expected to achieve 70% capacity utilization this financial year, with potential turnover of INR1,250–1,300 crores when running full capacity.
  • Solar structure segment registered 100% sales growth Y-o-Y last quarter.
  • Defence business aims to scale up production, with artillery shell plant targeting INR270–275 crores revenue at full capacity.
  • Company aims to become a $1 billion turnover firm in 3 to 4 years.
  • Expects seasonal slowdowns in H1 with better sales momentum in H2 annually.
  • Focus on increasing value-added product sales, which grew 24% Y-o-Y in Q1, while non-value-added sector growth is minimal.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Goodluck India Limited targets 15% to 20% top-line growth for FY '26 and expects to maintain this growth rate over the next 3-4 years.
  • EBITDA margins are projected to hover around 9.5% to 9.7% in the current year, with specific segments like hydraulic tubes expected to achieve 15% to 16% EBITDA margins.
  • The company aims to keep Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) between 22% to 25%.
  • The defence plant, expected to start contributing significantly, projects 40%-50% capacity utilization in FY '26 with anticipated EBITDA margins of 20%-35%, aiding margin expansion.
  • EPS for Q1 FY '26 was INR 12.60, up 16.5% YoY, indicating improving profitability.
  • Continuous growth in value-added products segments and expansion in defence, automobile, forging, solar, and infrastructure divisions will drive sustained earnings growth.
  • Overall focus remains on sustainable margin improvement and achieving $1 billion revenue milestone in coming years.

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Fundraise plans

  • There is no explicit mention of any immediate new fundraising through debt or equity in the call.
  • The company is repaying existing term loans (INR70 crores repayment planned this year) and expects interest cost around INR90 crores due to reduced rates.
  • Ram Agarwal mentions that expansion and capacity increase will be through debottlenecking and calculated, step-by-step approach rather than large new capex.
  • Regarding the Goodluck Defence subsidiary, a public issue to unlock shareholder value is possible in the future but no definite plans or timelines are currently announced.
  • The new defence plant must operate for at least one year before any public issue for Goodluck Defence can be considered.
  • Overall, the company is focusing on internal capacity optimization and gradual expansion without indication of fresh fundraising in the near term.

Order book

  • The company is awaiting government clearances to start production at its new defence plant manufacturing M107 155 mm artillery shells with a capacity of 150,000 shells per annum.
  • Orders are expected to be multiple times more than production capacity, indicating strong booking confidence.
  • There are Letters of Intent (LOIs) from multiple customers, but actual sales will start only after receiving the production license.
  • Exact government procurement volumes for domestic artillery shells are unknown due to the confidential nature of defence orders, but the company expects robust demand.
  • The current orderbook exceeds the company’s production capacity, indicating a strong pipeline.
  • For the BIS segment (HR coils), the company has steady conversion margins while pricing fluctuates and relies on domestic coil purchases.
  • Hydro-tube business is scaling up and expected to reach 70% capacity utilization in FY25.
  • Defence plant is expected to achieve 40%-50% utilization in FY26 and about 90% in FY27.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Continuous debottlenecking across plants to increase capacity without major new capex (Page 6).
  • Hydraulic tube plant aiming to reach 70% utilization this year with a turnover target of INR500 crores; overall hydraulic tube business expected to reach INR1,250-1,300 crores at full capacity (Page 14).
  • Defence subsidiary (Goodluck Defence and Aerospace) has set up a plant for 150,000 M107 shells per annum, awaiting government license to start production; capacity utilization expected at 40%-50% in FY '26 and 90% in FY '27 (Pages 12-14).
  • Repayment of term loan of INR70 crores planned during the year; interest cost expected around INR90 crores with rate reductions (Page 16).
  • Future capacity expansion in defence plant likely depending on business demand, with stepwise, calculated approach to growth and capex (Page 15).

How does Goodluck India Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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1Goodluck India Ltd
Rev 2Mar 3

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