Goodluck India Ltd
Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
Industrial Products
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company targets a long-term revenue growth of 15% to 20% annually, inclusive of defence revenue (Pages 14-15, 20).
- Defence business EBITDA margin expected to be in the range of 30%-35%, potentially leading to a significant bump in overall EBITDA margin by 300-400 bps over three years (Pages 16-17).
- Defence business ROCE expected around 20%-25% plus (Page 17).
- Earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 FY 2026 stood at Rs. 11.95; H1 FY 2026 EPS was Rs. 24.57 per share (Page 7).
- Management confident about achieving 15% growth for FY 2026 despite short-term volatility (Pages 14-15).
- Increase in defence revenue contribution expected to drive higher margins and profit growth moving forward (Pages 14-17).
- Capacity expansions in artillery shells and aerospace/missile parts to ramp up revenue significantly by FY 2028 (Pages 14-15, 19-21).
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The artillery shell division started commercial production in October 2025.
- There is no traditional order book for the defence shell product because demand outstrips supply.
- The company has visibility of demand and supply for the next 2-3 years.
- Existing orders, both domestic and international, are sufficient to support current and planned capacity expansions.
- The artillery shells capacity is planned to increase from 1.5 lakh to 4 lakh shells per annum.
- No specific value of pending orders or order backlog was disclosed due to strategic reasons.
- International customers have audited facilities and have received supplied samples.
- Demand is strong globally as artillery shells remain a scarce product.
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- Goodluck India Limited currently has around Rs. 160 crores of debt.
- The company plans to raise an additional Rs. 50 crores to Rs. 100 crores of debt for expansion purposes.
- The total comfortable long-term debt level is expected to be between Rs. 300 crores to Rs. 350 crores.
- The Rs. 500 crore expansion plan will be funded through a mix of equity and debt.
- The exact proportion of loan and equity for this expansion will be communicated in upcoming quarters.
- There is no specific mention of immediate equity fundraising, but an IPO is planned for the defence and aerospace subsidiary at an appropriate future time.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Goodluck India is undertaking a significant CAPEX of Rs. 400-500 crores to expand defence shell production capacity from 1.5 lakh to 4 lakh shells per annum within the next year.
- This investment also includes setting up ring rolling and press facilities for manufacturing missile outer parts and aerospace components.
- The CAPEX will be funded through a mix of debt and equity, with peak long-term debt comfortable at Rs. 300-350 crores, including an additional borrowing of Rs. 50-100 crores for expansion.
- The Hydraulic Tube segment, commissioned in January 2025, plans capacity augmentation by adding 50,000 MT per annum once it reaches ~80% utilization.
- Strategic partnership in the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program via Goodluck Defence and Aerospace subsidiary, with an Expression of Interest filed.
- Overall, the company is focused on building capability in defence, aerospace, and green energy sectors to capitalize on growing demand.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Goodluck India Limited targets a long-term revenue growth of 15% - 20% year-on-year.
- For FY ‘26 and FY ‘27, the company expects to maintain this 15% to 20% growth trajectory.
- Sales volume increased by 9.5% in Q2 FY2026 compared to the previous year.
- The artillery shell business aims to ramp up capacity from 1.5 lakh to 4 lakh shells by FY ‘28.
- At peak capacity, the shell business is expected to generate Rs. 800 crores revenue by FY ‘28.
- Missile and aerospace business anticipates peak revenues of Rs. 200 crores.
- The green energy segment (solar support structures) is projected to contribute Rs. 500-600 crores revenue by FY ‘27.
- Defence business revenue will increase significantly and is expected to boost overall EBITDA margins.
- Current capacity expansions and new product lines contribute to optimistic future volume and revenue growth.
