Gravita India Ltd

Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Minerals & Mining

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company mentioned an order book of around Rs. 25 crore to Rs. 30 crore in the projects vertical. - These projects typically deliver around a 40% gross margin. - Some projects were sold outside this year, contributing about Rs. 9 crore in earnings in this vertical. - The company expects similar numbers from the projects department going forward based on the current order book.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Gravita has signed a €34 million ESG loan from a European Development Financial Institution, expected to be drawn in the next 1-2 months. - This loan is partly for fresh CAPEX (~€4-5 million) and mostly to replace overseas working capital, reducing reliance on Indian funds. - The existing borrowing cost is around 8.5%, which will reduce to about 6.5% with this new debt facility, saving around 2%. - For the planned CAPEX of Rs. 600-650 crore over the next 3-4 years, funding will be mainly through internal accruals. - However, Gravita plans to take additional debt of Rs. 200-300 crore in the next 2-3 years, keeping leverage comfortable with a maximum Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.2. - Beyond this leverage, equity issuance will be considered to fund growth. - There is flexibility to raise equity or debt as appropriate for capital allocation and potential M&A.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Gravita plans a CAPEX of over Rs. 600 crore by FY'26 for existing and new verticals. - Rs. 250 crore of this is allocated to new verticals including steel, paper, and lithium-ion recycling. - Rs. 350 crore CAPEX for existing verticals (lead, aluminum, plastic, rubber) with ~40% overseas and 60% India-centric expenditure; new vertical CAPEX ~80-90% outside India. - Rubber recycling capacity is expanding, with new plants planned in multiple locations, including Ghana. - New verticals like paper and steel recycling expected to stabilize results in 1.5 to 2 years. - A €34 million ESG loan facility from European Development Financial Institutions was approved to fund overseas CAPEX and working capital, reducing borrowing cost from ~8.5% to 6.5%. - CAPEX is majorly funded through internal accruals with some debt planned (Rs. 200-300 crore). - Company is open to mergers and acquisitions for further growth opportunities.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Gravita India Limited targets a **25% year-on-year volume growth** for the next 3 to 4 years, with some quarterly fluctuations due to strategic volume adjustments for higher margins. - The company aims for a **35% annual growth in EBITDA and PAT**, focusing more on bottom-line growth and return on capital rather than just volume. - Sales volume CAGR is targeted at **35% by Financial Year 2027**. - Capacity expansion plans aim to increase total capacity to **approximately 425,000+ metric tons per annum by FY'26** (from 251,000 in FY'23). - New verticals like rubber, paper, and steel recycling are expected to contribute to growth, with new plants being set up in Africa and India. - Forecast includes maintaining an **11%-12% tax rate** and generating **8x to 9x revenue returns** on CAPEX invested yearly. These growth plans indicate robust volume, revenue, and profitability expansion over the medium term.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Gravita expects revenue volume growth of around 25% year-on-year for the next 3-4 years. - EBITDA growth is targeted at approximately 35% annually, emphasizing profitability alongside volume growth. - PAT CAGR over the past five years was 35%, with optimistic continuation toward 2027. - EBITDA per ton varies by product, with lead around Rs. 16-17/kg, aluminum Rs. 18-19/kg, and plastic approx Rs. 10/kg, with an overall improvement expected due to scale and product mix changes. - Return on capital is a key focus, targeting a minimum of 25% ROC going forward. - The company plans Rs. 600 crore CAPEX over four years, including new verticals like steel, paper, and lithium ion recycling, aimed to drive faster growth. - Overseas business will be financially self-dependent, supported by a new €34 million ESG loan facility. - Overall outlook is confident, expecting sustained strong earnings growth and operational profitability through FY'27.