Gujarat Gas Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Gas

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
🏗️

capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Gujarat Gas plans a CAPEX of ₹1,000 to ₹1,200 crore per annum for the next three years, funded mainly through internal accruals. - CAPEX split is roughly equal among new Geographical Areas (GAs), existing GAs, and CNG infrastructure. - Investments include augmenting infrastructure, adding capacity, converting daughter boosters, and adding 60-70 new CNG stations mostly in Ahmedabad rural area. - No immediate new investments planned in LNG infrastructure, but the company keeps evaluating long-term and short-term LNG sourcing options. - Strategic investment includes acquiring around 7.87% equity stake in Mundra LNG terminal, helping with storage, loading, and distribution capabilities, supporting growth in gas demand. - Focus also on expanding CGD infrastructure aggressively in new and existing areas to capitalize on industrial and commercial gas demand.
📊

revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Industrial volume growth: 10% growth in Q1 FY23-24; overall volume up from 8.86 mmscmd (Q4 FY22-23) to 9.22 mmscmd. - Morbi industrial cluster volumes increased to 4.01 mmscmd; potential to reach 5 mmscmd in H2 FY23-24 and beyond with margin expansion. - New GA volumes (CNG and PNG) currently at 0.5-0.6 mmscmd; expected to grow to around 1 mmscmd by end of FY25. - CNG vehicle base around 8.5 lakh vehicles; addition run rate improving with ~30,000 new vehicles added in current quarter. - CNG stations doubled from 400 to 800 in last three years; plan to add 60-70 new stations mainly in Ahmedabad rural and other new GAs annually. - Expansion focus on Thane, Ahmedabad rural, Rajasthan (Jalore-Sirohi), and Punjab industrial/commercial clusters. - Capex of INR 1000-1200 crore annually for next 3 years targeting backbone infrastructure, new and existing GAs, and CNG. - Expect balanced strategy between volume growth and margin maintenance with EBITDA target around Rs.4.5-5.5 per SCM.
📈

margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Gujarat Gas aims to maintain EBITDA in the range of Rs. 4.5 to Rs. 5.5 per SCM on a long-term basis, balancing volumes and margins. - The company projects volume growth, notably in industrial demand from areas like Morbi, Thane rural, Ahmedabad rural, Rajasthan, and Punjab. - Industrial volumes grew 10% in Q1 FY24; overall volume growth was 4%, indicating strong underlying demand. - Expansion of infrastructure, including around 60-70 new CNG stations annually, targeting 800+ stations; vehicle additions on CNG also rising (~30,000 vehicles added in current quarter). - CAPEX planned at Rs. 1000-1200 crores annually for the next three years to support infrastructure and new geographical areas. - Morbi industrial cluster volumes expected to reach 5 mmscmd and possibly beyond with margin expansion. - EBITDA per SCM in Q1 FY24 at Rs. 4.73 with efforts to sustain or improve profitability amid commodity price fluctuations. - Overall, moderate volume growth with margin stability is expected to support future earnings and EPS growth.
📋

orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The transcript does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders for Gujarat Gas Limited. - There is a focus on expansion plans including infrastructure development and new cluster additions such as in Morbi, Thane rural, Palghar, Jalore, Sirohi, and Dahej. - The company is aggressively investing in CNG infrastructure, having increased CNG stations from 400 to 800 in the last three years. - Capex guidance is set at Rs. 1000 to 1200 crores per annum for the next three years, split roughly equally between new GAs, existing GAs, and CNG infrastructure, indicating ongoing and planned projects. - The expectation to grow volumes in new areas to around 1 mmscmd by the end of 2025 points to an active expansion pipeline, but no specific order book details are provided.
💰

fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Gujarat Gas plans a CAPEX of INR 1000 to 1200 crores per annum for the next three years. - The CAPEX will be primarily funded through internal accruals/cash flows. - There may be occasional small bridge loans to advance CAPEX for specific demand pockets. - No immediate plans for additional investment or fundraising for the LNG project. - The company continues to be a zero-debt company. - No mention of any new equity fundraising; equity investment related only to Mundra LNG terminal stake acquisition, which is mostly finalized.