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HEG LtdQ3 FY23

HEG Ltd Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 520P/E: 35.7Market Cap: ₹12.1K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Demand for graphite anodes in India is expected to grow from zero today (no cell manufacturing) to about 5,000 tons by 2025 with 5-gigawatt cell capacity.
  • By 2030, graphite anode requirement in India is projected to reach around 1.2 lakh tons.
  • HEG is expanding its graphite anode plant capacity to 20,000 tons, with plans to complete by mid-2025.
  • Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steel production globally is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 3% over the next decade, boosting electrode demand globally.
  • New EAF capacities of about 85-90 million tons have been announced, expected to grow electrode demand further.
  • HEG's exports continue to grow, supported by a broad global footprint in 30+ countries.
  • The Chinese export ban on certain grades of graphite is expected to positively impact pricing and demand outside China, benefiting HEG’s market position.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • HEG expects a period of subdued demand and margin pressure through end of 2023 and possibly first half of 2024 due to global factors and steel production slowdown outside India.
  • Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steel production is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of ~3% over the next decade, driving electrode demand up substantially.
  • The company is optimistic about a bright future with no new electrode capacity announcements by competitors.
  • Targeting 25%-35% EBITDA margins for growing graphite anode capacity by 2025, with an expected margin around 30%.
  • Future graphite anode business is expected to be cost competitive with Chinese players, aided by low power cost.
  • Demand for synthetic graphite anodes in India projected to rise from zero currently to ~5,000 tons by 2025 and ~1.2 lakh tons by 2030, supporting growth.
  • Overall, steady long-term growth in earnings and margins expected once subdued market conditions improve.

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Fundraise plans

  • The transcript does not mention any current or immediate plans for fundraising through debt or equity.
  • The company is long-term debt free as of September 30, 2023.
  • Treasury size was nearly INR1,010 crores as of September 30, 2023.
  • No specific comments on new debt or equity raising initiatives during the call.
  • Capex for the new graphite anode plant (20,000 tons) is being planned around INR2,000 crores, expected to be funded internally or through savings.
  • No indication of planned fundraising related to this capex was discussed.

Order book

The transcript provided from HEG Limited's Q2 FY24 Earnings Conference Call does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders. However, certain relevant points indicate the demand outlook and business expectations: - Demand outlook is positive due to growing electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production globally. - Company expects increase in electrode demand aligned with EAF capacity expansions. - Second quarter of FY24 was satisfactory despite tough market conditions. - Upcoming graphite anode plant (20,000 tons) targeting completion by mid-2025 is fully backed by demand projections (up to 1.2 lakh tons graphite anode demand by 2030 in India). - The company is servicing over 30 countries and expects demand to pick up as global steel production recovers. - No specific numeric order book or pending orders data disclosed in the transcript. If you need detailed order book status, it may be available in quarterly filings or direct company disclosures.

Capex plans

Yes
  • HEG plans a capital expenditure of around INR 1,000 crores for a 10,000-ton graphite anode plant.
  • They intend to double this capacity to 20,000 tons, with the total capex expected to be slightly less than INR 2,000 crores due to savings on power lines and processes.
  • The graphite anode plant construction is to begin soon with completion targeted by mid-2025.
  • Land for the anode plant has already been acquired.
  • This investment is strategically aligned to tap into the growing EV and lithium-ion battery market in India.
  • The company aims to be cost competitive with Chinese producers, leveraging competitive power prices in Madhya Pradesh (~INR 5.5-6 per unit for 20 years).
  • Larger scale anode project plans have been boosted by global trends like China’s graphite export ban, creating domestic demand opportunities.

How does HEG Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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