Housing & Urban Development Corporation Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Finance

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Norevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- For the current financial year, HUDCO has a borrowing plan of around INR 35,000 crores via debt instruments such as ECBs, multilateral loans, and domestic financing. - HUDCO is working on reducing the cost of funds actively to improve yields, spreads, and net interest margins. - There is no immediate capital infusion or equity dilution planned up to 2030, as HUDCO's capital adequacy and debt-equity ratios indicate a strong capacity to fund growth organically. - The company is exploring government support, including 54EC bonds and liability support for some large projects (like metro projects), which may impact funding costs. - HUDCO plans to raise around USD 1 billion in external commercial borrowings (especially from the Japanese market) in the near term. - No new equity fundraise or dilution is foreseen in the near to medium term as the company can comfortably scale its loan book with current capital.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- HUDCO primarily functions as a lending institution and does not directly undertake capex or capital investments itself. - It provides loans for infrastructure and housing projects carried out by state government entities. - During FY24, HUDCO sanctioned around INR 82,000 crores for various infrastructure projects. - The focus is on sanctioning and disbursing loans for state government infrastructure projects rather than direct capital expenditure. - Discussions are ongoing with the government for competitive and cheaper funding options to support large metro and infrastructure projects. - HUDCO is also preparing to expand into financing "bankable projects" backed by assured cash flows, potentially broadening its lending ambit in the midterm, but no specific timeline has been provided yet for such strategic expansions.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Loan book target of INR 1.5 lakh crores by FY26 and INR 3 lakh crores by 2030, reflecting strong growth ambition. - Disbursement planned at INR 32,000-35,000 crores for FY24 and INR 40,000-45,000 crores for FY25. - Sanctions amounting to around INR 82,000 crores in FY24, indicating a robust project pipeline. - Expected CAGR of 26-27% initially, tapering to 20-22% towards 2030 in loan disbursements. - Growth driven by diversified sectors including roads, water supply, affordable and social housing, power, metro projects, and urban infrastructure. - Increasing focus on bankable projects with assured cash flows to improve yields and spread. - Targeted improvement in Net Interest Margin (NIM) to 3.3-3.4% and spread to 1.6-1.8% by FY26. - Continual efforts to reduce cost of funds and improve return on equity beyond current 12%.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- HUDCO targets a loan book of INR1.5 lakh crores by FY26 and INR3 lakh crores by 2030, signaling strong growth. - Disbursements are planned at INR32,000-35,000 crores for FY24 and INR40,000-45,000 crores for FY25. - Profit grew 24% YoY to INR2,100 crores in FY24; quarterly profits increased 35%. - Return on equity (ROE) has improved from around 11% to over 12%, with potential to multiply as loan book grows without equity dilution. - NIMs and spreads expected to improve in next two years due to lending to higher-yielding bankable projects beyond state-backed loans. - Provisions and NPAs are well-controlled, supporting stable credit costs. - HUDCO foresees considerable organic growth supported by strong infrastructure pipeline and government programs. - Management cautious yet optimistic; no immediate plans for capital dilution, indicating confidence in current business model and future profitability.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- HUDCO has a very strong and discreet pipeline with identified projects and states. - As of FY24, HUDCO has sanctioned around INR 82,000 crores worth of projects. - The company has already committed approximately INR 85,000 crores in project pipeline. - Pipeline is robust and not an issue for FY25 sanctions and disbursements. - The projects largely include urban infrastructure sectors like metros, water supply, sewerage, drainage, roads, and transport. - HUDCO expects to sanction a significant portion of its pipeline within the current financial year. - The loan book target is to reach INR 1.45 to 1.5 lakh crores by FY25, supported by these sanctions and planned disbursements.