Inox Green Energy Services Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No specific guidance or announcement regarding new fundraising through debt or equity was made in the Q1 FY24 earnings call. - The company mentioned converting long-term money for promoter backing to avoid taking capital back from INOX Green, emphasizing an asset-lite, free cash flow business model. - Focus is on growing the O&M business organically and through acquisitions rather than raising fresh capital. - The net debt situation was clarified, showing a reduction from around INR 300 crores to approximately INR 260 crores after receivables and warrant proceeds. - The company indicated it is liquidating its last generating asset and does not plan to add new generating assets requiring capex. - Overall, the strategy highlights sustaining free cash flow and annuity-based growth rather than fresh fundraising.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- INOX Green Energy Services Limited operates primarily as a free cash flow, asset-light O&M business. - The company does not intend to allocate capital to generating assets going forward; instead, it is liquidating its last asset sold to Adani. - Capital expenditure is minimal, limited to about INR 1 crore for tools. - Any new common infrastructure CapEx is undertaken by Resco, which acts as a trustee of that asset; INOX Green will be the O&M service provider for those assets. - The focus remains on organic and inorganic growth via acquisitions rather than capital-intensive asset additions. - The business model is oriented towards generating annuity-like returns with very limited capital investments.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- INOX Green Energy expects to add 1,500 MWs organically over FY24 to FY26. - They plan to add around 1,000 MWs annually, a mix of organic and inorganic growth. - The company is targeting a fleet size of approximately 3.8 GW by end of FY24. - INOX Wind (parent company) is targeting to execute at least 500 MW of orders per annum from FY24 onwards, which will flow to INOX Green. - Inorganic growth includes acquiring portfolios from the 10 GW fragmented market of small O&M players, with several acquisition talks ongoing. - Recent acquisition of I-Fox added over 250 MW to the fleet, performing better than expectations. - The overall wind capacity additions in India are expected to be around 100 GW in the next 8-10 years, providing a large market opportunity. - The company foresees increasing profitability with operating leverage and built-in 5% annual price escalations in O&M contracts.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- INOX Green aims to double its O&M portfolio to 6 GW from 3.1 GW at Q1 FY24 end via organic and inorganic growth. - Organic addition expected: 1,500 MW during FY24 to FY26 (approx. 500 MW per year). - Addition includes 250 MW acquired through controlling stake in I-Fox Windtechnik. - EBITDA expected to rise with portfolio doubling; forecasted EBITDA could reach ~INR 250-275 crore by FY26 (from ~INR 97 crore at 2,800 MW). - EBIT margins steady around 50%, supported by built-in 5% YoY escalation in contracts and operating leverage from higher MWs. - Expected net profitability improvement from FY26 onward, as accumulated losses (~INR 600 crore) get offset by operational profits. - Asset sale (Nani Virani) expected to help become net debt free and improve profit conversion. - The business model is asset-lite with strong free cash flow and focused on annuity-like revenue streams.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- As of Q1 FY24, INOX Green Energy’s portfolio was approximately 3.1 GW, expected to reach around 3.8 GW by end of FY24 through organic and inorganic additions. - The company aims to add 1,000 MW per year over the next three years (FY24-FY26), totaling about 3,000 MW incrementally. - Of this, 1,500 MW is expected organically from INOX Wind during FY24 to FY26. - Inorganic growth targets include acquiring up to 1,500 MW from fragmented small O&M players managing about 10 GW of distressed OEM wind fleets. - INOX Green has already acquired a controlling stake (51%) in I-Fox Windtechnik, adding 250+ MW to the fleet as of Q4 FY23. - The company is in talks with multiple players and expects potential large deals that could accelerate acquisitions beyond the stated targets. - Nani Virani asset sale (~50 MW) is expected to conclude soon, which will help become net debt-free.