Inox Green Energy Services Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
revenue: Category 1margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yes
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current wind O&M portfolio: ~3.5 gigawatts as of Q2 FY '25. - Expected portfolio: Target to reach 6 gigawatts by FY '26. - Longer-term guidance: 10 gigawatts in the next 3 to 4 years. - Organic growth: INOX Wind targeting to execute at least 4 gigawatts orders by FY '27 to be added to INOX Green. - Inorganic growth: Actively evaluating multiple M&A opportunities and acquiring portfolios of other ISPs. - Recent inorganic addition: I-FOX Windtechnik added 54 megawatts. - Strategic investments made (~Rs. 200 crores) to enhance pipeline. - Orderbook outlook: Strong growth both organically and via acquisitions with a stringent capital allocation policy. - Ongoing participation in tenders for O&M and refurbishment projects. - Average contract length increasing, currently around 10 years for typical O&M contracts.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- INOX Green Energy Services Limited has called in the first Rs. 500 crores of a planned Rs. 1,000 crores equity raise. - The next Rs. 500 crores of the preferential equity raise, available for the next 15 months, has not yet been called. - Rs. 200 crores from the initial equity raise is currently held as liquid cash on the balance sheet. - Rs. 100 crores was used towards debt pre-payment. - The company is prudently evaluating multiple inorganic growth opportunities and will utilize the available cash for acquisitions that fit its capital allocation policy. - No details were shared about raising new debt; the focus appears to be on judicious use of existing equity funds. - The management emphasizes disciplined capital allocation and will avoid overpaying for acquisitions.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- INOX Green has made a strategic investment of around Rs. 200 crores in an entity expected to add significant value; details to be disclosed in the coming months. - The company is evaluating multiple inorganic growth opportunities with a stringent capital allocation policy, avoiding overpaying for acquisitions. - They have completed the acquisition of I-FOX Windtechnik, which doubled profitability and size in 12 months. - The company plans to call for the next Rs. 500 crores preferential equity within the next 15 months for further capital needs. - Transformer and crane businesses are part of Resco (a subsidiary), with cranes being acquired for captive use and potentially third-party services. - No plans to acquire transformer companies directly; focusing on value addition through tolling to enhance profitability.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- INOX Green aims to nearly double its O&M portfolio to 6 gigawatts by FY 2026 and reach 10 gigawatts within 3-4 years. - INOX Wind plans to add at least 4 gigawatts organically to INOX Green’s order book by FY 2027. - The company is actively pursuing inorganic growth opportunities through acquisitions and tenders for third-party wind assets. - Recent strategic investments and acquisitions like I-FOX (adding 54 MW to the portfolio) are driving growth. - The wind power sector outlook remains strong with around 12 gigawatts of hybrid FDRE wind capacities awarded in FY 2025. - The company expects continuous robust commissioning of wind capacities, providing long-term multi-decadal O&M opportunities. - Revenue growth is supported by a broadening portfolio, increased machine availability (96.4% in Q2 FY25), value-added and refurbishment services.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- INOX Green targets significant portfolio growth: 6 GW by FY '26 and 10 GW within 3-4 years, driven by strong organic and inorganic growth. - O&M business operates at approximately 50% EBITDA margin, expected to sustain. - Removal of power evacuation business will eliminate depreciation (~Rs. 16-17 Cr per quarter), potentially improving quarterly PAT by Rs. 12 Cr+, enhancing profitability. - Tax outflows expected to be nil for next 2-3 years due to carried forward losses, boosting PAT conversion. - Strategic Rs. 200 Cr investment and prudent capital allocation aim to add significant value and accelerate growth. - Continuous cost control and operational efficiency, including indigenization of spares and in-house crane operations, will improve margins. - Recent acquisitions like I-FOX and inorganic expansions contribute to profit growth. - Free two-year O&M post-turbine commissioning is accounted for by revenue recognition over contract life, ensuring stable future earnings.