Interglobe Aviation Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Transport Services

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- IndiGo is making investments in hangars at Delhi and Bangalore. - Planning to buy aircraft, starting with smaller ATR aircraft, in the coming quarters using capital. - Considering purchase of associated assets such as engines on a cash basis for long-term benefit. - Setting up an aircraft leasing entity in GIFT City, Gujarat, to diversify capital sources and gain tax benefits; this entity will be a profit center intended for aircraft financing. - Leased 2 aircraft on finance lease in the recent quarter. - Looking at additional CEO aircraft acquisitions expected from secondary markets starting January 2024. These initiatives reflect a strategic capital deployment to enhance fleet capacity, financing options, and asset ownership over time.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

Future growth expectations for IndiGo in sales, revenue, and volumes based on the document: - Robust demand outlook with passenger numbers in H1 FY24 at 52 million, 41% higher than pre-Covid levels, aiming for 100 million passengers in FY24. - Capacity growth guidance for FY24 is in the north of mid-teens percentage, with plans to add approximately one aircraft per week in FY25. - Continued expansion of international network (26% of ASKs currently international), with new destinations like Bali and Medina planned. - Load factors remain strong (~83%), supporting yield recovery expected in Q4 FY24. - Revenues increased 21% YoY in Q2 FY24 despite some softness in yields. - Mitigation measures to counter aircraft groundings ensure capacity targets and help sustain growth. - Maintaining conservative capacity guidance amid uncertainties but confident in long-term capacity doubling by 2030. These indicators suggest solid volume and revenue growth prospects over the near to medium term.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- IndiGo reported a net profit of Rs. 1.9 billion in Q2 FY24, a significant turnaround from losses five years ago. - The airline remains confident in meeting its FY24 capacity growth guidance of north of mid-teens percentage growth. - Long-term capacity guidance aims to double the airline's size by 2030. - Mitigation plans are in place to manage aircraft groundings due to Pratt & Whitney engine issues, with expectations to maintain planned capacity and financial goals. - EBITDAR margin improved to around 16% in Q2, supported by revenue growth despite yield softness and reduced fuel costs. - Operational profit excluding foreign exchange loss was Rs. 8.1 billion in Q2 FY24. - Growth drivers include expanding international routes (currently 26% of available seat kilometers are international) and acquiring additional aircraft, including secondary market leases. - No specific future earnings or EPS guidance was provided; however, management expects positive momentum supported by strong demand and capacity expansions.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- IndiGo currently has a large order book of around 980 aircraft to be delivered over the coming decade. - The order book includes a very sizable number of aircraft with deliveries expected at a rate of about one new plane per week throughout next year. - IndiGo is confident in Airbus's ability to deliver as scheduled and would welcome any expedited deliveries. - The carrier has also leased two aircraft on finance lease recently and is considering purchasing certain aircraft and related assets in upcoming quarters. - IndiGo is setting up an aircraft leasing unit in GIFT City, Gujarat, to diversify financing sources and enhance access to capital from lessors worldwide.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- IndiGo is currently diversifying its sources of financing to support its large order book of around 980 aircraft. - The company is in the process of setting up an aircraft leasing unit in GIFT City, Gujarat, aimed at enhancing access to capital from lessors worldwide, subject to regulatory approvals. - IndiGo has leased 2 aircraft on finance lease in the recent quarter. - Given the healthy free cash position (₹180.8 billion as of September quarter), IndiGo is considering purchasing certain aircraft and related assets in the coming quarters. - No explicit mention of new equity fundraising was made. - The focus appears to be on capitalizing on debt and lease financing options, along with strategic investments and expanding leasing capabilities through the new GIFT City entity.