Ircon International Ltd

Q4 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Construction

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Currently, Ircon International Limited is not planning any equity buyback despite the depressed equity market valuation, as stated by Ragini Advani. - The company intends to reinvest its profits primarily into highway, coal JV connectivity projects, and renewables to support growth and diversification. - There is ongoing equity infusion planned into SPVs and JVs, with about ₹500-600 crores expected in FY24, mainly for highway projects and partially for renewable and coal projects. - Some borrowing from the market is involved to fund equity contributions in these SPVs, but no specific new large-scale debt or equity fundraising announcements were mentioned. - The focus is on internal accruals and strategic investments rather than fresh equity issues or debt raising at this stage.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Ircon plans a total equity/quasi-equity investment of about ₹900 crores over the coming years, mainly spread across highway projects, renewable energy, and coal JVs. - For FY23, an additional ₹50 crores equity investment is expected; FY24 is forecasted to see a larger CAPEX of around ₹500-600 crores. - Of this, roughly ₹400-450 crores will be invested in highway SPVs, with ₹50-100 crores allocated to JV projects. - Standalone CAPEX (routine assets, plant & machinery for EPC projects) for the current year is around ₹242 crores. - The company is borrowing funds from the market to support equity infusion into large projects via SPVs. - Investment focus aligns with ongoing highway projects and renewable/coal JV expansion.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- FY23 revenue expected between ₹9,000 to ₹9,500 crores, possibly crossing ₹10,000 crores depending on execution efforts. - FY24 revenue projected to grow by 5% to 10% over FY23, targeting over ₹10,000 crores. - On a conservative basis, 10% growth; bullish scenario up to 15% growth. - Growth dependent on project execution speed and external factors beyond control. - Focus on winning large, niche, high-value railway projects with less competition to sustain margins. - Expansion in highway projects ongoing, with some SPVs starting to contribute profits in 1-2 years. - Bidding activity expected to resume strongly post-March/April for sustaining and increasing turnover. - Bullet train project and high-speed rail expected to provide new opportunities, leveraging experience with Japanese technology.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- FY23 revenue expected around ₹9,000–9,500 crore; confident to cross ₹10,000 crore. - FY24 projected revenue growth: 5% to 10%, possibly up to 15% in a bullish scenario, aiming for slightly above ₹10,000 crore. - EBITDA margin guidance: 10% to 11%; core EBITDA around 8.5%. - PAT margin guidance: approximately 7.5% to 8%, expected to be sustainable into FY24. - Margins to be maintained through selective bidding, focusing on niche, large-size railway projects (e.g., bullet train, J&K projects) to avoid low-margin small contracts. - Operating income from SPVs/JVs expected to increase as projects stabilize in 1-2 years, enhancing profitability. - No significant buybacks planned; profits to be reinvested into highway, coal connectivity, and renewables projects for growth. - Order book expected to sustain turnover with healthy margins; focus on profitable orders rather than volume-driven bidding.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current consolidated order book stands at approximately ₹30,000 crores. - The bullet train project order is about ₹6,200 crores, included within the total order book. - The company is consciously selective in bidding, focusing on larger, technically demanding projects to maintain margins. - Bid wins are largely from L1 (lowest bid) or QCBS (quality-cum-cost based) categories for larger projects. - Plans to resume focused bidding from March/April 2023 to sustain or grow order book. - Expecting to add quality projects aligned with strengths in railway infrastructure, highways, and niche areas. - Some satellite projects, like highway SPVs and coal connectivity JVs, are at various construction stages. - The company projects 5-10% top-line growth next fiscal with a steady inflow of high-value orders. - No emphasis on merely increasing order book size at the expense of profitability.