Jagran Prakashan Ltd

Q1 FY20 Earnings Call Analysis

Media

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Norevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
📋

orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

The transcript does not provide any information on current or expected order book or pending orders for Jagran Prakashan Limited or its subsidiaries. The discussion primarily focuses on: - Liquidity and financial health during COVID-19. - Advertisement revenue impact and recovery trends. - Capex plans (minimal for FY 2021, about Rs. 25-30 Crores). - Cost-saving measures across businesses. - Newsprint prices and circulation recovery. - Business model robustness and future outlook. - No mention of order book status or pending orders. Hence, no details on order book or pending orders are available in the provided pages.
💰

fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No immediate plans for fundraising through buybacks or additional equity; management prefers to wait and assess the situation before any distribution decisions (Page 22). - The company recently augmented liquidity by borrowing Rs. 250-300 Crores via Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) with interest rates around 8.25% to 8.5%, having maturities of 3 to 4 years (Pages 8-9, 22). - Management views borrowing as a necessary step during uncertain times, even with substantial cash on hand (about Rs. 600 Crores excluding working capital limits) (Pages 8, 14). - No discussion of further aggressive acquisitions or investments currently; focus is on maintaining the business (Page 4). - No explicit mention of future equity fundraising plans in the call.
🏗️

capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- For the fiscal year 2019-2020, Jagran Prakashan Limited undertook very insignificant capex. - There are no plans to invest heavily in capex in the current year (FY 2021) either. - The company will only invest the bare minimum capex required. - Expected capex for the current year is estimated to be between Rs. 25 Crores to Rs. 30 Crores maximum. - No mention of any new strategic investment or large-scale capital investment plans at this time. - The focus appears to be on maintaining liquidity and operational efficiency rather than aggressive capital spending.
📊

revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Circulation has already recovered to 75-80% post-lockdown and is expected to return to pre-COVID levels once the lockdown fully lifts. - Management remains bullish about the future of the newspaper industry and expects most circulation to come back. - Digital, which grew about 10% in FY2020 and 30% in Q4, still faces pressure but subscription models will be actively explored to boost revenue. - Advertising revenue experienced a sharp decline, especially in Q4 due to lockdown, but some improvement has been seen post-lockdown with expectations of gradual recovery. - Government advertisements are expected to increase with infrastructure investments, potentially benefiting revenues. - Cost savings and operational efficiencies are being implemented which may help sustain profitability despite uncertain advertising trends. - No explicit long-term revenue growth guidance given; the outlook remains uncertain and dependent on overall economic recovery and normalization post-COVID.
📈

margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- No explicit earnings or EPS guidance given due to uncertain economic environment post-COVID; management advises living "month by month" (Page 9). - EBITDA potential to return to previous high levels (~Rs. 500 Crores) within 2-3 years, assuming revenue recovers and fixed costs remain controlled (Page 19). - Cost-saving measures targeting Rs. 100 Crores at consolidated fixed cost level with at least 50% of savings expected to remain permanent (Page 17). - Print business revenue expected to gradually recover with circulation nearly 80% restored post-lockdown and ability to scale to pre-COVID levels (Page 10, 12). - Growth in digital business (10% annual, 30% Q4 growth) noted, though under pressure during lockdown (Page 3). - Cover price and pagination strategies to improve per copy realization, with past increases of 12-13% and potential for further increases (Page 18). - Government advertisement and tender spending expected to increase, potentially offsetting decline in other sectors (Page 19).