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Jagran Prakashan LtdQ3 FY19

Jagran Prakashan Ltd Q3 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 65.2P/E: 8.9Market Cap: ₹1.5K CrSector: Media

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 5

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

No

0 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 5
  • No structural change is expected in print or overall discretionary spending; any structural shifts would reflect the broader economy (Page 17).
  • Advertising growth is challenging, with near-term improvements expected only in FY2021 (Page 4).
  • Q3 and Q4 outdoor, event, and job work revenues expected around Rs.80 Crores, showing stability in these segments (Page 16).
  • Circulation revenue is expected to remain steady without significant decline; circulation copy degrowth planned at 4-5% for strategic reasons (Pages 7 and 9).
  • Digital revenue was Rs.20-23 Crores in H1 FY2020, with expectations to grow in the second half (Page 11).
  • State government advertising spend is growing (~15%), while central government spend is declining, affecting overall growth (Pages 3 and 15).
  • Overall sales growth heavily impacted by macroeconomic slowdown; recovery in advertising revenue likely only in FY2021 (Pages 3 and 4).

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Advertisement revenue growth is expected to be challenging in the near term due to economic slowdown, with recovery anticipated in FY2020-21 rather than Q4 FY2019-20.
  • Newsprint cost reductions in Q3 and Q4 will significantly improve margins and profits among print brands.
  • Digital revenue showed Rs. 20-23 Crores in H1 FY2020, expected to grow further in H2.
  • The "Other" revenue segment (outdoor, events, job work) is expected to generate around Rs. 80 Crores in Q3 and Q4 combined, maintaining or improving from Q2 levels.
  • Government advertising spends, particularly state government, have shown growth (~15%) and may not see degrowth overall in the year, supporting revenue stability.
  • Cost control, lower tax rates (approx. 25.17% for Jagran), and lower newsprint costs will aid profitability.
  • The company expects better full-year results supported by cost efficiencies and improved tax structure.

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Fundraise plans

  • There are no explicit mentions of any immediate or future fundraising plans through debt or equity in the discussed pages.
  • The company currently holds a strong cash position, with nearly Rs.600 Crores in cash and net cash and liquid assets worth nearly Rs.400 Crores at the group level.
  • Group debt is minimal, about Rs.150-200 Crores, with print business debt even lower (around Rs.50-60 Crores).
  • For the acquisition of RBNL, funding is planned via surplus cash including IPO money and accumulated depreciation; debt existing in RBNL will continue but is manageable.
  • The company plans to maintain aggressive shareholder distributions and has no greenfield projects planned that would require significant capital investment.
  • No clear plans for share buybacks are declared, though the opportunity is acknowledged; board discussions are yet to take place.

Order book

  • The transcript does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders for Jagran Prakashan Limited.
  • There is discussion around revenues in the "Other" category, which includes outdoor, events, and job work components, generating about Rs.37 Crores in Q2.
  • The expectation for Q3 and Q4 is a combined revenue of around Rs.80 Crores from outdoor and event businesses, including job work.
  • No specific figures or details are provided regarding order books or pending orders.
  • The focus is more on revenue run-rate from various business verticals rather than confirmed order backlog.

Capex plans

No
  • No greenfield projects or new circulation expansion planned for the next quarter, two quarters, or even one to two years. (Page 4)
  • Operating at optimum circulation levels, with focus on markets where monetization potential is high. (Page 4)
  • No plans for any Greenfield projects currently. (Page 13)
  • Cash deployment prioritized for acquisition of RBNL using surplus cash from IPO money and accumulated depreciation; no compromise on shareholder distribution. (Page 12)
  • Ongoing focus on cost control and margin improvement rather than new capital investments. (Page 3, 12)
  • Buyback of shares is considered a good opportunity due to share price dip but no concrete plans announced yet. (Page 12)

How does Jagran Prakashan Ltd rank vs peers in Media?

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1Jagran Prakashan Ltd
Rev 5Mar 3

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