Jagran Prakashan Ltd
Q2 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis
Media
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- There is no explicit mention of any current or future fundraising through debt or equity in the provided text.
- The company is focused on maintaining a net cash positive position with about Rs. 300 Crores net cash as of June.
- Borrowings had increased temporarily due to dividend distribution and buyback in the past, but interest costs are expected to reduce over time.
- Management is cautious on acquisitions and cash allocation, weighing pros and cons when opportunities arise.
- No plans to acquire properties in outdoor business; preference is on lease model with long-term leases and capex to upgrade sites.
- Dividend and buyback remain preferred routes for capital allocation rather than fresh fundraising.
- Overall, no indication of plans for new debt or equity raising based on current outlook.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Jagran Prakashan Limited follows a lease model for its outdoor advertising properties and does not intend to acquire properties currently, preferring long-term leases of 5-10 years.
- The company plans to invest in upgrading leased outdoor sites by converting them into digital sites, where profit margins could improve from current levels (around 7%) to 10-18% over time.
- Capex is primarily allocated towards digital transformation of outdoor advertising panels (e.g., metro tenders requiring digital panels).
- For the next couple of years, the company does not plan to acquire new outdoor advertising assets but will invest in digital conversions once the macro environment improves.
- The subsidiary company (Music Broadcast Limited) is pursuing strategic acquisition proposals in the radio space.
- No immediate large-scale capital investments or acquisitions are indicated for the parent company, but opportunities may be evaluated given liquidity conditions in the market.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Local advertisement revenues for Dainik Jagran continue to grow, with state government spending picking up.
- Central government and national revenues are still showing degrowth, but some recovery is expected, particularly with increased government infrastructure spending.
- Future growth in auto advertising is anticipated due to clearing of old stock and new launches around the festive season.
- Digital business is expected to grow at a mid-teen rate (15%-20%) consistently over the next three years.
- Outdoor media margins are targeted to reach around 10% in the medium term by upgrading sites and converting to digital displays.
- Circulation volumes will see very negligible increases; growth focus is on price realization and efficiency.
- Overall advertising revenue recovery expected from August/September onward, supported by improving monsoon, better liquidity, and festive season demand.
- The company remains optimistic about exiting the current downturn sooner rather than later with growth resuming.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Management expresses optimism about growth resuming sooner rather than later, expecting good times not far off (Page 18).
- Target to achieve 10% margin in outdoor business this year, with potential increase to 15%-18% after converting sites to digital (Pages 17).
- Local advertising revenues for Dainik Jagran continue to grow; state government spend picking up; central government and national revenue still degrowing but expected to improve (Pages 2, 16).
- Despite Q1 challenges, initiatives helped contain degrowth to less than 2%; expectation of growth from August/September due to festive season and increased government spending (Pages 4, 16).
- Digital business is growing mid-teens, considered an "incredible" growth given the peer context (Page 3, 5).
- Radio business has stabilized and is expected to improve from bottoming out in July (Pages 4, 16).
- FY20 newsprint cost savings expected to aid margins by Rs. 40-50 Crores (Page 14).
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company does not provide specific numerical data on current or expected order book or pending orders.
- Discussions and deal executions have increased in intensity, indicating a positive trend in business opportunities.
- August and September are expected to see improvement due to the beginning of the festive season and increased government spending.
- State government spending has started, contributing about 15% of the advertising category.
- Central government spending, contributing about 20%-25%, is expected to start soon with investments leading to related advertisements.
- The company bases its expectation on conversations and deals executed rather than fixed numerical forecasts.
- While there is some optimistic thinking, expectations are grounded in realistic assessments.
