Jindal Saw Ltd

Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Industrial Products

Full Stock Analysis
revenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No specific mention of immediate new fundraising through debt or equity for standalone operations was detailed for FY26 or FY27. - For the three new projects in Saudi and Abu Dhabi (totaling ~$400-$425 million), about 30% (~$100-$120 million) is expected to be raised as equity over the next three years. - The remaining portion of the project funding will come from local market debt. - No clear declaration of fresh standalone debt or equity issuance beyond these project-related plans. - Maintenance CAPEX of Rs.600-700 crores annually is planned mainly from internal resources for Jindal SAW India standalone. - Subsidiary CAPEX in Saudi and UAE is expected to be around $20-$30 million for the current year, with potential advances and civil work. - No mention of any additional fundraising beyond these points during the Q2 FY26 call.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY26 standalone CAPEX for Jindal SAW India is estimated at Rs.600 to Rs.700 crores, primarily for maintenance, modernization, capacity improvement, and bottleneck removal across 12 facilities. - Subsidiary CAPEX in Saudi Arabia and UAE is additional, expected to be $20-30 million in the current year with plans for further investments over the next two years. - No significant growth CAPEX planned in India beyond the ongoing seamless pipe facility expansion (additional piercing mill trial). - Three major announced growth projects in GCC/MENA: a seamless pipe plant in Abu Dhabi, a helical pipe facility, and a ductile iron pipe finishing line in Saudi Arabia. - These GCC/MENA projects are expected to cost around $400-$425 million, with around 30% equity and will take 2-3 years for execution, with production commencing around FY28-29. - CAPEX for these growth projects will be spread roughly 40-50% in FY27 and FY28.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Current order book for pipes stands at 1.925 million tons, the highest in many years, indicating strong future sales potential. - The seamless pipe plant capacity is expanding by 1.5 lakh tons, with commercial production expected to start in Q4 FY26, potentially increasing seamless pipe sales from 2 lakh to 3.5 lakh tons annually. - The company expects to produce and sell over 7 lakh tons of ductile pipes in India across three blast furnaces, showing capacity to handle high volumes if payment issues resolve. - New export contracts like the 6.22 lakh tons helical pipe order for Saudi Arabia will contribute significantly starting Q3 FY26. - Growth CAPEX outside India (Saudi and UAE) projects with $400-$425 million investment will come online by 2028-29, supporting volume growth in MENA region. - Domestic demand is strong but impacted by payment delays; normalization expected in 2-3 months could boost volumes. - No major growth CAPEX planned in India beyond seamless pipe expansion; focus is on maintenance CAPEX (~Rs.600-700 crores annually).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Jindal SAW has a strong and historically high order book (~19.25 lakh tons), providing good revenue visibility for the next few quarters. - The company anticipates gradual improvement in operations and profitability starting Q3 FY26 as government liquidity issues are resolved. - Margins are expected to improve gradually due to better production volumes and cost optimization efforts. - Standalone maintenance CAPEX is expected at Rs.600-700 crores annually for FY26 and FY27, with minimal growth CAPEX in India beyond ongoing seamless pipe expansion. - New growth CAPEX primarily relates to three projects in GCC/MENA (seamless pipe plant in Abu Dhabi, helical pipe facility, and DI finishing line in Saudi Arabia) to be completed over 2-3 years with a total of ~$400-425 million investment. - EBITDA conversion rates are expected to improve over the medium term. - No major write-offs anticipated in FY26; stable financial position with manageable long-term debt. - Overall, earnings and EPS growth hinge on resolving payment delays and ramping up execution of orders.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Total order book as of September 2025: approximately 1.925 million tons (19.25 lakh tons), highest in many years for Jindal SAW. - Export order book: around 800,000 tons, including 622,000 tons of helical pipes for a water infrastructure project in Saudi Arabia (job work). - Domestic DI pipes order book: approximately 750,000 tons with a one-year backlog and full booking of Indian DI facilities. - Order book across five sectors includes exports (~30-32%) and domestic sales. - Longitudinal pipes for export: about 115,000 tons (oil & gas sector). - Execution depends on timely payments from EPC contractors; liquidity issues are causing delays. - Indian plant capable of producing more than 700,000 tons per year, but delivery is affected by payment cycles. - Exports and domestic order book solid, but execution timeline influenced by payment settlements and project commencements.