Jupiter Wagons Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Industrial Manufacturing

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Jupiter Wagons Limited does not expect any incremental debt beyond what has already been mentioned for their business expansion. - The company has stated that the debt planned for their businesses, including the wheel capacity expansion, remains the same and no new fundraising through debt is currently anticipated. - Capex payments will depend on project milestones, and while substantial capex is planned (notably INR 500 crores total this year and INR 2,500 crores for the Odisha plant), the company has not indicated the need for additional equity fundraising. - Management has not disclosed any plans or timelines for equity fundraising in the call. - Overall, current indications suggest funding through existing debt capacity and internal accruals, with no announced plans for new debt or equity issuance.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Total capex for this year across all businesses is about INR 500 crores (Page 12). - Major capex of around INR 2,500 crores planned for establishing a state-of-the-art wheel manufacturing facility in Odisha, expanding capacity from 20,000 to 100,000 forged wheelsets annually (Pages 4, 12). - The wheel capacity expansion is a 3-year project, with capacity ramp-up visible by FY '27 end (Pages 4, 12). - Capex for wheel capacity expansion in FY '25 is expected between INR 35 to 100 crores including GST (Page 10). - Other capex mainly comprises replacement investments with no substantial capex in other segments planned (Page 10). - Acquisition of Log9’s advanced battery assets with approx. INR 40 crores spent, strengthening electric mobility and battery in-house production capabilities (Page 10). - Strategic investments in battery energy storage systems (BESS) and data center containers are ongoing (Pages 4, 9).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Jupiter Wagons targets selling close to 10,000 wagons in FY '25, up from 8,000 last year, and plans to increase to 12,000 wagons next fiscal year. - Wheel business capacity will ramp up from 10,000 to 25,000 wheelsets by FY '25 end, with further expansion expected by FY '27. - Non-wagon revenues are expected to contribute about 50% of total revenues within four years, supported by growth in electric mobility, batteries, brake systems, and container segments. - Brake business revenues are projected between INR 300-500 crores in FY '26, supported by strong order books including Stone India approvals. - Electric vehicle segment expects to sell over 1,000 vehicles in calendar year FY '26, with breakeven anticipated earlier than 3 years. - Overall, the company targets 20-25% CAGR growth over the next two years, backed by a robust order book of INR 6,64,336 lakhs and expanding capacities across segments.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Jupiter Wagons expects robust revenue growth with wagon sales targeted at ~10,000 units in FY '25 and ramping up to 12,000 units in FY '26. - Non-wagon revenues, including wheels, brakes, electric mobility, and batteries, are projected to contribute ~50% of total revenues within 4 years. - Wheel business revenue expected to increase from INR160 crores (H1 FY '25) to INR300-400 crores (FY '25) and ~INR700 crores in FY '26. - Brake business revenues projected between INR300-500 crores by FY '26. - EBITDA margins are expected to remain strong, improving as non-wagon business contribution grows. - Electric mobility business (including Log9 acquisition) expected to breakeven earlier than 3 years, driven by vehicles, BESS, data center, and battery supplies to Indian Railways. - Overall, company targets 20-25% CAGR growth over the next 2 years. - Profit after tax (PAT) rose 25% YoY in H1 FY '25 with improving margins, indicating an upward profit trajectory.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- As of September 30, 2024, Jupiter Wagons' order book stands robust at INR 6,64,336 lakhs (approx. INR 6643 crores), covering about 18 months of execution. - The company is not looking to increase the order book significantly beyond this to avoid delays and penalties. - Private sector orders remain strong, with recent orders including about 10 rakes from a single customer. - Indian Railways has a strong order pipeline, expected to tender substantial wagon orders possibly late this year or early next fiscal. - FY '25 order books are full, and FY '26 is expected to maintain strong orders, driven by upcoming tenders. - Brake systems and wheelsets also have good order books, with strong demand projected from Indian Railways and international markets. - Capacity ramp-up is ongoing to match order demand, particularly in wheels and brakes.