Kalyani Forge

Q4 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis

Industrial Products

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company has both debt and equity fundraising options under consideration and is keeping both options open. - Timing of debt and equity raises will be different, so the company is evaluating them in parallel. - The fundraising is aligned with the capital expenditure (CAPEX) strategy focused on growth, particularly for upgrading assets and expanding capacity. - The company plans to increase fixed assets to support growth, reduce working capital debt, and increase long-term debt for a healthier funding mix. - No specific timeline or amount has been disclosed for the fundraising activities.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY26 CapEx budget is ₹25 crores. - Approximately 60% of CapEx allocated to future growth areas: driveline and axle segments. - Remaining 40% focused on the engine product group, which is experiencing significant growth. - About ₹7.6 crores of the CapEx budget is dedicated to reconditioning forging presses, primarily to increase production output for new driveline and engine business. - Emphasis on upgrading asset base to improve productivity, quality, and reduce rejections. - Goal to productionize ₹30 crores of new business in FY26. - Focused on quick turnaround for CapEx projects to start generating returns rapidly. - Strategic investments aim to increase installed capacity towards ₹500 crores revenue potential by expanding and capitalizing fixed assets. - Also, maintaining flexibility in funding options with both debt and equity planned for CapEx.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company aims to productionize new business worth around ₹30 crores in FY26, a significant jump from previous years. - Installed capacity can theoretically generate revenues up to ₹500 crores, with current revenues at 3.5 times net fixed assets. CAPEX plans aim to increase fixed assets, enabling this growth. - Focus on new growth areas like driveline and axle, with ₹45 crores and ₹10 crores new business order book respectively, showing strong potential beyond the core engine segment. - Business mix optimization and pruning of non-core, low-margin businesses aim to improve scalability and long-term margin stability, enabling faster growth. - Seasonality affects demand across segments but diversification across passenger cars, trucks, construction, and agriculture provides hedging. - Strategic investments in forging and machining capacity upgrades target increased production output and value addition. - Strong emphasis on customer quality upgrade and new business order inflow to sustain profitable volume growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- EBITDA margin target: Medium-term goal to achieve at least 15%, with a longer-term milestone of around 20%. Current priority is stabilizing at ~15.7%, with 20% within sight but no specific timeframe given. - PAT margin improvement driven by EBITDA margin expansion, price improvements, optimized depreciation, and better interest cost management. - New business productionizing target: Rs. 30 crores in FY26, expected to provide a good jump versus previous years. - Revenue for FY26 expected to be around the same or slightly higher compared to last year; EBITDA margin expected to improve year-on-year. - Capacity expansion underway to support revenue growth, aiming for installed capacity to produce up to Rs. 500 crores in revenue eventually. - Seasonality and diverse product segments provide hedging benefits; long-term trends favor automotive premiumization and market growth. - Strong operational reset and continuous improvement underway to sustain margin improvements and growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The new business order book value is around ₹162 crores, comprising: - ₹107 crores from connecting rods (core engine business) - ₹45 crores from driveline segment - ₹10 crores from axle segment - New growth areas like driveline and axle represent multiples of existing business in those segments. - New business includes ramp-up of xEV driveline programs and new MNC customer orders in the axle segment. - The company is focusing on increasing vehicle and customer share of wallet by offering engine, driveline, and axle components. - Older low-margin and unrelated businesses are being pruned to focus on strategic growth areas. - Productionizing around ₹30 crores worth of new projects in the current financial year, with ₹20 crore roughly done in the first nine months.