Kaynes Technology India Ltd

Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Industrial Manufacturing

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No immediate or near-term plans for promoter stake dilution via equity sale or fundraise. - Any dilution of promoter stake would occur only if promoters sell shares directly or if the company raises funds through equity. - Current capex funding plans involve a mix of Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), internal accruals, and some transitory debt. - For OSAT business, the balance capex (INR 10.3 billion) is planned to be funded through QIP, internal accruals, and some debt. - PCB business capex (INR 14 billion planned) balance to be funded via QIP, internal accruals, and debt; detailed expansion decisions pending subsidy discussions. - No near-term plans for large-scale equity or debt fundraising beyond what's mentioned for capex and operational needs.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Kaynes has capital expenditure plans including INR14 billion for PCB business, with balance INR3.2 billion and central government subsidy of about INR3 billion expected; funding through QIP, internal accruals, and some debt. - OSAT project capex of INR10.3 billion to be funded via QIP, spent INR3.8 billion so far, with balance from accruals spread over five years plus some debt. - Capital subsidies from central government expected to flow soon for eligible capex; subsidy management team formed to ensure smooth documentation and compliance. - Plans to evaluate further PCB business expansion after discussions with state governments about subsidies. - Capex for R&D ongoing, with part capitalized based on product development stages. - Strategic focus on OSAT facilities commissioning over next 12 months, aiming for customer approvals and commercial production ramp-up starting FY '27. - No reliance expected on parent entity funding for OSAT project; self-sufficient financially.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Revenue growth in second half expected to accelerate, with Iskraemeco's contribution relatively stable or decreasing in percentage terms. - Growth driven by strong performance in multiple EMS segments including automotive, electric vehicles, aerospace, defense, rail, IT, and industrial sectors. - Smart meter business (Iskraemeco) set for approximately INR300 crores revenue in the year, stabilizing as a run-rate business with limited horizon due to RDSS program. - Other verticals (automotive, EVs, aerospace, defense, rail, IT) expected to compensate and outpace smart meter revenue growth. - Company planning for sustained CAGR in next few years similar to past 4 years, implying continued expansion. - No significant increase in Iskraemeco revenue share; focus on product solution manufacturing over project implementation. - New marquee customers added with plans for volume increases.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Iskraemeco's first-half FY '25 saw inventory write-offs (~INR44 crores) and other expenses (~INR6 crores) impacting profits; second half showed turnaround with ~INR530 crores sales and ~INR49 crores profit, indicating recovery potential. - Revenue guidance suggests Iskraemeco's contribution will reduce proportionally, but other EMS segments like automotive, industrial, electric vehicles, aerospace, defense, rail, and IT are showing strong growth and will drive future revenues. - Organic growth outside smart metering is robust, expected to more than compensate for any decline from smart metering, with several marquee customers expanding volumes. - EMS business is expected to generate operating cash flow but may not produce free cash flow in near term due to ongoing capex for growth and efficiency improvements. - Overall, earnings and operating profits should improve driven by diversified growth in EMS verticals and resolution of prior write-offs and provisions.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company highlighted acquiring three OSAT clients: Alpha Omega Semiconductor, Infineon, and Larsen & Toubro’s takeover of a part of Fujitsu General’s Semiconductor business. - Commercial production for OSAT has technically started with sample shipments. - Focus currently is on obtaining sample approvals in FY '26 to drive significant revenues from FY '27 onwards. - Iskraemeco's orderbook includes business amounting to about INR532 crores in H2 FY '25. - New orders acquired are largely non-AMISP contracts except for the residual PGCIL contract (60-70% completed). - Subsidy-linked capex investments are ongoing with reimbursements expected timely; escrow accounts to be opened. - The company is seeing good growth in automotive, industrial, electric vehicles, aerospace, railways, and defense sectors. - Future PCB expansion will be evaluated after government subsidy discussions.