Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or equity in the excerpts. - Net debt increased by $82 million in the quarter due to capital expenditures and dividends. - The company has a strengthened financial profile with a Moody’s upgrade to Baa1 (BBB+ equivalent). - Cash flow is very strong, enabling financing of projects primarily through internally generated cash flow. - No discussions around issuing new equity or debt; balance sheet remains strong with leverage at 3.6x (lowest since before 2014). - Guidance suggests maintaining a strong balance sheet, growing dividends, and funding expansions mainly with internal cash flow rather than new external fundraising.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- $10.1 billion expansion project backlog as of Q1 2026, up $145 million from last quarter, with average in-service date in Q1 2028. - Approximately $230 million of projects placed in service and $375 million of new projects added in Q1 2026, including three data center deals. - Actively advancing multiple new natural gas pipeline opportunities beyond reported backlog, driven by power growth and LNG demand (over 10 Bcf/day power sector, 3+ Bcf/day LNG). - Monument Pipeline acquisition in Texas for ~$500 million with expansion activity starting later in 2026 requiring incremental capital. - Planning incremental expansion of KinderHawk processing capacity by about 1 Bcf during 2026. - Storage expansions, including a 10 Bcf expansion approved at NGPL and Bear Creek storage open season, to leverage operational flexibility. - Western Gateway project pending FID with expected asset and cash contributions; exact capex TBD after JV terms are finalized.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Strong natural gas demand driven by power generation and LNG sectors, with projects serving over 10 Bcf/day for power and 3 Bcf/day for LNG in development. - Continued outperformance expected in natural gas volumes, with volumes up 15% in gathering and 8% in transport in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025. - Expansion backlog increased to $10.1 billion, with projects on time and on budget, average in-service date Q1 2028. - Power and LNG-related opportunities dominating future growth pipeline across the Southern US from Arizona to Florida. - Monument Pipeline acquisition adds incremental growth with long-term contracts and expansion opportunities. - Storage expansions (e.g., Bear Creek, NGPL storage) enhance system flexibility, supporting growth. - Expect full-year 2026 EBITDA to exceed budget by over 3% (~$250M), fueled by natural gas demand and acquisitions. - CO2 segment volumes growing, including 63% increase in RNG, contributing to volume growth. - Long-term demand for U.S. LNG expected to grow, driven by global market conditions.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Adjusted EPS for Q1 2026 up 41%, EBITDA up 18% compared to Q1 2025, indicating strong growth. - Full-year 2026 EBITDA expected to exceed budget by more than 3%, translating to over $250 million additional EBITDA. - Continued outperformance anticipated, driven mainly by strong natural gas demand and Monument acquisition contributions. - Dividend increased by 2% over 2025, with an annualized rate of $1.19 per share. - Long-term demand for natural gas expected to grow 27% by 2031 (150 Bcf/day), supporting sustained earnings growth. - Expansion project backlog at $10.1 billion, with projects averaging below 6x multiple and in-service by Q1 2028, driving future EBITDA and EPS growth. - Kinder Morgan targets substantial EBITDA and EPS growth over coming years by completing backlog projects and adding new opportunities.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current project backlog increased to $10.1 billion this quarter, up $145 million from last quarter. - Approximately $230 million of projects were put in service this quarter. - Added $375 million in new projects, including three data center deals. - Backlog multiple remains below 6x with an average in-service date of Q1 2028. - Over 50% of the project backlog is from the three largest projects, all on time and on budget. - Beyond the reported backlog, actively advancing numerous identified opportunities, largely driven by power growth. - Expect many of these opportunities to convert into approved projects during 2026. - Western Gateway project not yet in the backlog as it is pending finalization of definitive agreements and FID expected in the next few months.