Lodha Developers Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company had a GDV addition of about ₹20,000 crores through new projects in FY24, higher than their guidance of ₹17,500 crores. - For FY25, they have planned launches from identified sites with a GDV of about ₹12,000 crores, expecting this to grow during the year. - The pre-sales target for FY25 is ₹17,500 crores, aiming for little over 20% growth. - Between Bangalore and Pune, they target combined pre-sales of about ₹40 billion (₹4,000 crores). - The company aims to increase presence and expand the launch pipeline beyond current identified sites. - The focus is on maintaining a balanced portfolio with a target mix of 60% owned land and 40% Joint Development Agreements (JDAs). - They expect to continue receiving steady and strong pipelines of new projects across markets.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Macrotech Developers Limited raised a significant amount of capital through a QIP towards the end of the last fiscal (March 2024), which will be deployed over the next 6 to 12 months to fuel growth. - The company targets maintaining a net debt-to-equity ceiling of 0.5x and expects net debt to be close to Rs.5,000 crores by March 2025. - Operating cash flow of about Rs.6,500 crores for the next year complements this capital raise. - Planned business development spend for FY’25 is about Rs.3,500 to 4,000 crores on new projects, with additional support for existing projects. - There is no explicit mention of new fundraising planned beyond the capital raised recently, but the current capital and cash flow provide liquidity for growth and project launches.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Targeting about Rs. 3,500 to 4,000 crores for new business development in FY’25, excluding support for existing projects. - Plan to invest close to Rs. 7,000 crores total in FY’25, with about half expected to go into new project acquisitions. - Two warehousing/industrial assets under development under Green Digital Infra JV with Bain and Ivanhoe Cambridge; one nearing operational stage, ongoing land acquisitions expected this quarter. - Capex focus primarily on housing, selective office spaces (notably in Palava and key strategic locations), warehousing, and retail properties. - Strategic launches planned amounting to GDV of Rs. 12,000 crores in FY’25, with potential to increase during the year. - Premium housing products contributing about 8-10% of sales mix, including high-value standalone bungalows (Rs. 4 to 10 crores). - Emphasis on operational efficiency, sustainable growth, and maintaining ROE near 20% post-capital deployment.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Targeting at least 30% growth in sales for Fiscal 2025, with hopes to maintain similar growth in Fiscal 2026. - Expect significant ramp-up in Palava and Upper Thane sales from ~₹2,200 crores in FY24 to about ₹8,000 crores annually within five years. - Cumulative sales from Palava and Upper Thane over the next three decades projected around US$175 billion. - Planned launches with GDV of about ₹12,000 crores for FY25, likely to increase during the year. - Overall pre-sales guidance of ₹17,500 crores for FY25, implying 20%+ growth from FY24. - Pune market pre-sales expected to double in 2-3 years, aiming for 12%-15% market share by decade-end. - Bangalore presence is in initial scaling phase with ₹1,200 crores sold from two projects, expected to scale up conservatively. - Land sales from Palava targeted at ₹400-500 crores annually, with some variability year-to-year.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Macrotech Developers is targeting at least 30% growth in FY25 with hopes to maintain this level in FY26, driven by infrastructure developments like Palava’s growth, Airoli tunnel, airport, bullet train, Metro-12 line, and Vasai-Alibaug corridor. - Embedded EBITDA margin guidance is 31% for FY25, up from 30% in FY24, reflecting improved profitability through capital deployment and lower finance costs. - ROE is expected to recover to around 20% by FY26 after some dilution in FY25 due to capital deployment. - Operating cash flow is projected to increase to about ₹6,500 crore in FY25, supporting growth and profitability. - The company anticipates revenue growth supported by premium product launches in Palava and Upper Thane, contributing to margins improvement. - Cumulative sales from Palava and Upper Thane are expected to reach about US$175 billion over the next three decades, with increasing EBITDA margins due to premium mix.