Lodha Developers Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company expects net debt reduction in the second half of the year to be higher, helped by INR550 crores expected from UK operations. - There is ongoing assessment of business development opportunities, which could lead to variations in net debt if capital deployment is required. - The company has paid out its first dividend last year and intends to increase returns to shareholders over time, possibly through dividends or other means. - There is no explicit mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity planned currently. - The company’s strategy involves managing net debt carefully while exploring opportunities to deploy surplus cash flow effectively, considered by the Board as appropriate.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- The company continuously evaluates business development opportunities to deploy capital effectively, implying ongoing or future strategic investments. - Debt reduction is prioritized; surplus cash flow may be used for business development or to increase shareholder returns through dividends or other means. - The digital infrastructure business (warehousing and industrial parks) is active, including land sales to partners and third parties, signifying capital recycling and reinvestment. - Recent divestment of a subsidiary (New Cold, cold chain logistics) for INR1.5 billion, with funds expected this quarter. - Land acquisition continues in key areas like South Central Mumbai, indicating ongoing capital investment in new projects. - The company aims to expand in Eastern Suburbs with 2-3 new projects annually and increase market share, implying future capex. - Launch pipelines for FY24 are strong, largely planned for H2, reflecting upcoming investment in project development and execution.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Targeting 20% CAGR in presales and about 20% ROE for steady, predictable high growth. - Eastern Suburbs aiming for 40%-50% presales growth in FY '24 (~INR 1,700-1,800 crores), already at INR 800 crores in H1. - Plan to add 7-9 new launches over next 6 months (~8 million sq ft worth INR 12,000 crores). - Expansion to 5-6 projects in Eastern Suburbs by year-end across multiple locations. - Pune presales expected to cross INR 2,000 crores in FY '24; aim to be top 3 developer by year-end. - Bangalore launches planned to start November; expect growth trajectory similar to Pune. - Continued price growth of 6%-7% annually with focus on affordability. - Expect meaningful growth in extended Eastern Suburbs sales (expected to grow beyond last year's INR 23 billion). - Market share in Mumbai expected to grow with new locations and supply additions. - Overall, robust pipeline and strong business development underpin growth outlook.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Macrotech Developers targets a steady 20% CAGR in presales and about 20% Return on Equity (ROE), driving predictable growth. - Adjusted EBITDA margins stood strong around 30% in the recent quarter, indicating robust profitability. - ROEs on underlying pro forma earnings are moving towards the high teens, with expectations to improve further. - The company plans to sustain modest price growth (6-7% annually), maintaining strong affordability to support long-term sales. - Revenue recognition changes will better reflect business performance by FY '27, improving earnings visibility. - Business development pipeline is strong with expected presales growth of 40-50% YoY in new markets like Pune, plus new launches in Bangalore. - Net debt reduction is ongoing, supporting financial health and potential to increase shareholder returns (via dividends or other means). - Overall, Macrotech maintains confidence in steady earnings and operating profit growth driven by strong demand and disciplined execution.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The transcript does not explicitly mention a formal "order book" or "pending orders" figure. - However, the company has delivered about 80% of its annual business development guidance with INR143 billion out of INR175 billion targeted, indicating a strong pipeline. - The Eastern Suburbs region is experiencing accelerated growth with plans to add 2-3 projects annually per their supermarket strategy. - There are ongoing transactions such as land sales and the sale of a subsidiary (New Cold) worth INR1.5 billion expected to close soon. - The pipeline for Joint Development Agreements (JDA) and land acquisitions remains healthy and larger than 18 months ago, giving flexibility to be selective. - The company expects meaningful growth in sales and revenue in extended locations and new markets, supported by a strong new project pipeline.