M M Forgings Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

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revenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- MM Forgings plans a total capital expenditure of INR 500 crores over the next 12 to 24 months. - Of this, approximately INR 300 crores will be funded through internal accruals (equity). - The remaining INR 200 crores will be financed by additional borrowings (debt). - No mention of fresh equity fundraising beyond utilizing internal accruals. - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout policy of around 15%-20% of profits, subject to board approval and urgent requirements. - This funding mix supports capacity expansion, including investments in forging, machining, and electrical/EV components.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- MM Forgings plans a capex of around INR 500 crores over the next 12 to 24 months. - INR 425 crores allocated to core forging: about INR 250 crores for machining and INR 100-150 crores for forging capacity expansion. - INR 75 crores is targeted towards electrical segment (Abhinava Rizel). - INR 400 crores of the capex expected to be spent within FY25, mainly on machining, forging, and EV motor facilities. - About INR 75 crores spent so far in FY24 for Abhinava Rizel, mainly on infra and testing facilities for PMSM motors. - Revenue potential from Abhinava Rizel capex is around INR 100 crores initially, aiming for higher growth later. - Funding mix: INR 300 crores from internal accruals and INR 200 crores via additional borrowings. - Plans to invest in green power (wind and solar) in the near future to mitigate rising power costs.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- FY24 production achieved around 85,000 tons; sales at 77,000 tons. - FY25 production target: 92,000 to 95,000 tons. - Sales growth expectation for FY25: around 10%-12%. - Export volume growth expected at about 10% for the coming year. - Domestic market growth projected at 5%-7%, with an additional 3% market share gain, primarily in the second half. - Anticipated sales turnover growth: aiming for double-digit percentage growth (~10%). - Investment of INR 500 crores planned over next 12-14 months to support capacity expansion and growth. - Inventory reduction target: INR 50 crores to 100 crores aimed to improve working capital and sales. - Margin expansion expected to cross 20% by Q3/Q4 calendar year, supporting healthy profitability with volume growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- MM Forgings expects a 10%-12% overall growth in sales for the current year, driven by both domestic and export markets. - EBITDA margins improved to 19.4% in FY24; management targets crossing the 20% mark by Q3/Q4 of the current fiscal year and maintaining early 20s margins thereafter. - Operating efficiencies and cost compression (in cutting tools, manpower, electricity) alongside value-added products expansion are expected to enhance margins further. - Export growth remains strong, supported by global customers shifting away from China, fueling order upticks especially in Europe and the Americas. - Investments totaling around INR500 crores planned over next 12-14 months will expand capacity and support higher growth, targeting tonnage increase from ~85,000 tons in FY24 to 92,000-95,000 tons in FY25. - Management aims to scale the EV powertrain business to INR1,000-2,000 crores turnover over the next decade, contributing to future profit growth. - Interest costs will rise moderately but margin outlook remains positive despite this headwind.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- MM Forgings has reported new orders across its three major export geographies (North America, Europe, South America), contributing to growth. - There is strong order inflow driven by customers' China-plus-one strategy, especially from European customers looking to diversify away from China. - Export growth of 10-15% is expected, supported by new orders despite some industry slowdown. - Domestic market growth is projected around 10%, with 3% estimated market share gains in various product categories. - Production targets for FY25 are between 92,000 to 95,000 tons, up from 85,000 tons produced in FY24. - Sales volume for FY24 was around 77,000 tons; volume growth of approximately 10% is anticipated for the coming year. - The company is actively working on launching new products in segments like heavy presses, beams, knuckles, and crankshafts to boost order book and presence.