M M Forgings Ltd
Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Auto Components
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company expects debt levels to increase in FY2024 and FY2025, with the peak debt occurring in FY2025.
- Debt levels are anticipated to rise by around Rs. 200 Crores each year during this period.
- Around Rs. 300 Crores of the current gross debt (approx. Rs. 430 Crores) is expected to be repaid over the next three years (2024-2026).
- New loans will likely be taken in rupees without swapping to forex due to high current foreign interest rates.
- Capex of about Rs. 300 Crores is planned for FY2024, similar to FY2023, some of which may be funded by the increased debt.
- No mention of any immediate equity fundraising; focus remains on managing and servicing debt while investing in growth.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- FY2024 Capex guidance: Approximately Rs. 300 Crores.
- Q1 FY2024 Capex spend: Around Rs. 50 Crores.
- Additional capex for EV business next 12 months: Rs. 75 to 100 Crores, possibly an extra Rs. 50 Crores depending on off take.
- Ongoing investments in state-of-the-art forging lines with customer approval.
- Plans to increase crankshaft machining capacity from 32K to 50K units with utilization rise to around 40%.
- Developing new products like EV controllers and PMSM motors with expected production and revenue growth over the next 1-2 years.
- Focused investment in EV powertrain components (motor, gearbox, controllers) with prototypes expected by Q1 FY2025.
- Long-term turnover target includes strategic investments in controller business projecting Rs. 1,000 to 2,000 Crores over 7-10 years.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Targeting Rs. 1000 to Rs. 2000 Crores in turnover from the controller business and related products over a 7-10 year horizon.
- Expect to cross Rs. 2000 Crores in total revenue by FY2025 or within the next 1-2 years.
- Sales and production volume targets for FY2024 are between 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes, with domestic sales around 60,000 tonnes.
- Long-term ambition to reach about Rs. 3000 Crores turnover in 7-10 years.
- EBITDA margins expected to be stable around Rs. 35,000 per tonne with potential to improve through operating leverage and value-added products.
- Growth driven mainly by domestic auto market, EV powertrain components (motor, gearbox, controller), and selective export market expansion.
- Focus remains on forging and auto sectors, with EV segment set to contribute more significantly from FY2025 onward.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- MM Forgings aims to achieve revenue between Rs.1000 Crores to Rs.2000 Crores over a 7-10 year horizon.
- The company targets crossing the Rs.2000 Crores revenue mark by FY2025.
- EBITDA margins currently at ~17-18%, with a target of reaching around 19% over time.
- EBITDA per tonne expected to stay around Rs.35,000, with potential to inch higher through operating leverage and value-added products.
- Profitability impacted recently by raw material and power cost inflation but expected to improve as prices soften.
- Capex of around Rs.300 Crores annually for FY2024 and FY2025, supporting growth and margin expansion.
- Focus remains primarily on automotive forging and EV powertrain components, expected to drive growth.
- Company expects positive volume growth, aiming for 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes production in FY2024.
- Export markets remain sluggish but domestic growth and new product launches will bolster earnings.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Specific details on current or expected order book/pending orders were not explicitly disclosed in the call.
- For gear blanks and passenger cars, production is slightly delayed but expected to start by end of Q2 FY2024, following a six-month delay.
- Crankshaft development is reasonably on track.
- The company is adding newer parts but does not disclose detailed product portfolio or order book specifics.
- The focus remains on powertrains with plans to become a full-service provider over the next 12-15 months.
- Next year, turnover from new parts in testing and fitment trials, such as PMSM motors, is expected to be in the range of Rs. 15 to 50 Crores.
- Overall, growth in volumes targeted around 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes in FY2024 with sales volumes expected to be close to production.
