M M Forgings Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Auto Components

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company expects debt levels to increase in FY2024 and FY2025, with the peak debt occurring in FY2025. - Debt levels are anticipated to rise by around Rs. 200 Crores each year during this period. - Around Rs. 300 Crores of the current gross debt (approx. Rs. 430 Crores) is expected to be repaid over the next three years (2024-2026). - New loans will likely be taken in rupees without swapping to forex due to high current foreign interest rates. - Capex of about Rs. 300 Crores is planned for FY2024, similar to FY2023, some of which may be funded by the increased debt. - No mention of any immediate equity fundraising; focus remains on managing and servicing debt while investing in growth.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY2024 Capex guidance: Approximately Rs. 300 Crores. - Q1 FY2024 Capex spend: Around Rs. 50 Crores. - Additional capex for EV business next 12 months: Rs. 75 to 100 Crores, possibly an extra Rs. 50 Crores depending on off take. - Ongoing investments in state-of-the-art forging lines with customer approval. - Plans to increase crankshaft machining capacity from 32K to 50K units with utilization rise to around 40%. - Developing new products like EV controllers and PMSM motors with expected production and revenue growth over the next 1-2 years. - Focused investment in EV powertrain components (motor, gearbox, controllers) with prototypes expected by Q1 FY2025. - Long-term turnover target includes strategic investments in controller business projecting Rs. 1,000 to 2,000 Crores over 7-10 years.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Targeting Rs. 1000 to Rs. 2000 Crores in turnover from the controller business and related products over a 7-10 year horizon. - Expect to cross Rs. 2000 Crores in total revenue by FY2025 or within the next 1-2 years. - Sales and production volume targets for FY2024 are between 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes, with domestic sales around 60,000 tonnes. - Long-term ambition to reach about Rs. 3000 Crores turnover in 7-10 years. - EBITDA margins expected to be stable around Rs. 35,000 per tonne with potential to improve through operating leverage and value-added products. - Growth driven mainly by domestic auto market, EV powertrain components (motor, gearbox, controller), and selective export market expansion. - Focus remains on forging and auto sectors, with EV segment set to contribute more significantly from FY2025 onward.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- MM Forgings aims to achieve revenue between Rs.1000 Crores to Rs.2000 Crores over a 7-10 year horizon. - The company targets crossing the Rs.2000 Crores revenue mark by FY2025. - EBITDA margins currently at ~17-18%, with a target of reaching around 19% over time. - EBITDA per tonne expected to stay around Rs.35,000, with potential to inch higher through operating leverage and value-added products. - Profitability impacted recently by raw material and power cost inflation but expected to improve as prices soften. - Capex of around Rs.300 Crores annually for FY2024 and FY2025, supporting growth and margin expansion. - Focus remains primarily on automotive forging and EV powertrain components, expected to drive growth. - Company expects positive volume growth, aiming for 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes production in FY2024. - Export markets remain sluggish but domestic growth and new product launches will bolster earnings.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Specific details on current or expected order book/pending orders were not explicitly disclosed in the call. - For gear blanks and passenger cars, production is slightly delayed but expected to start by end of Q2 FY2024, following a six-month delay. - Crankshaft development is reasonably on track. - The company is adding newer parts but does not disclose detailed product portfolio or order book specifics. - The focus remains on powertrains with plans to become a full-service provider over the next 12-15 months. - Next year, turnover from new parts in testing and fitment trials, such as PMSM motors, is expected to be in the range of Rs. 15 to 50 Crores. - Overall, growth in volumes targeted around 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes in FY2024 with sales volumes expected to be close to production.