M M Forgings Ltd

Q3 FY22 Earnings Call Analysis

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fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- MM Forgings plans a capex of around ₹550 Crores over the next 24 months, with ₹90 Crores already spent. - To fund this, the company anticipates raising approximately ₹250 Crores through debt. - The remaining ₹300 Crores is expected to be funded from internal accruals. - The company plans incremental debt of around ₹350 Crores according to discussions on swaps and interest cost management. - The incremental borrowing is likely to be Euro-denominated bonds, with interest rate swaps utilized to manage floating to fixed rate risk. - Management indicates that floating-to-fixed interest rate swaps should be used judiciously based on market conditions. - There is no indication of any immediate equity fundraising in the transcript.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- MM Forgings is planning a total capex of approximately ₹550 Crores over the next 24 months, with ₹90 Crores already spent. - Out of the ₹550 Crores, around ₹100 Crores is earmarked for a new acquisition related to the EV (Electric Vehicle) powertrain business. - The remaining ₹450 Crores will be invested in the core forging and machining business. - Additionally, ₹25 Crores is planned for a subsidiary, SVPL, which operates in the alternator business. - Near-term capex for the current fiscal year is expected to be around ₹275 Crores to ₹300 Crores, with about ₹200 Crores planned for the next 6 months. - In the EV space, an investment of ₹100 Crores is planned for testing, prototyping, batch, and serial production facilities, initially in leased property before moving to owned facilities.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Targeting approximately 75,000 tonnes production for the current year, up from about 36,000 tonnes in H1 FY2023. - Expecting to cross 90,000+ tonnes in the next fiscal year. - Revenue expected to reach around Rs.1,400 Crores for the current year and targeting Rs.1,800 to 2,000 Crores for FY2024. - Revenue guidance is based on static raw material prices; softer commodity prices may impact revenues modestly (5-10% reduction expected to impact 40-50% of revenue). - Growth driven mainly by strong domestic market expansion, wallet share gains, and new product launches. - Increase in machined product share expected from 50% to 65% by FY2024, contributing to higher realizations. - EV segment revenue projected to grow from under Rs.25 Crores in FY2024 to Rs.100+ Crores in FY2025. - Export markets, especially Europe and North America, present opportunities amid shifts from China plus one strategy and energy cost advantages in India.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Revenue is expected to grow sharply, targeting about Rs.1800 Crores to Rs.2000 Crores in FY2024, driven mainly by strong domestic demand, wallet share gains, and new product launches. - EBITDA margins are expected to remain steady or improve slightly, supported by higher realization per tonne due to value-added machining products. - The share of machined products is set to increase from about 50% currently to approximately 65% by FY2024, aiding margin expansion. - EV business is projected to contribute modestly with around Rs.25 Crores revenue in FY2024, increasing to over Rs.100 Crores in FY2025. - Operating costs may see some inflationary pressure in the near term, but overall profitability should improve with sales growth. - Capacity utilization is expected to increase towards 75,000 tonnes by year-end, supporting volume-driven earnings growth. - Realization per tonne is anticipated to remain around Rs.190,000, viewed as sustainable barring major commodity price changes.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The transcript does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders in exact figures. - However, there are indications of strong order inflows, especially from the "China plus one" opportunity, with new orders won from North American customers seeking alternatives to China. - The company expects positive growth in exports and domestic markets, driven by factors such as wallet share gains and new product launches. - Demand from Europe faces some uncertainty, with some order cancellations, but overall opportunities remain due to supply disruptions and energy price impact. - There's also an ongoing development in the EV space, with expected revenues of Rs. 25 Crores in FY2023-24 and over Rs. 100 Crores in FY2025, indicating active orders under development. - Overall, the outlook suggests a healthy pipeline of orders and sustained demand despite global challenges.