Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Automobiles

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No immediate or significant new fundraising through debt or equity is planned. - The company has a very healthy cash balance of Rs. 17,600 crores after repaying Rs. 3,500 crores of debt, close to zero debt now. - Auto segment's planned CAPEX of Rs. 27,000 crores over five years will be entirely self-funded by auto business cash flows. - EV business funding is supported by partners like BII and Temasek, who have already invested Rs. 1,200 crores and Rs. 300 crores, with an additional Rs. 900 crores planned. - The company has discussed with investors about further small contributions but sees them as minor and optional. - Capital allocation remains disciplined with a focus on organic funding of growth; acquisitions will be considered only if they make strong strategic and financial sense. - No large equity issuances or major new borrowings disclosed at this time.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Total deployment over the next five years is Rs. 37,000 crores: - Auto: Rs. 27,000 crores (including Rs. 12,000 crores for EV and Rs. 14,000 crores for ICE capacity) - Farm: Rs. 5,000 crores - Services (including Growth Gems): Rs. 5,000 crores - The Rs. 27,000 crores for auto is self-funded by the auto segment. - EV capacity includes fungible capacity between EV and ICE, primarily in Chakan. - Originally estimated Rs. 10,000 crores for farm machinery CAPEX; now revised to Rs. 16,000 crores over 3 years due to new models and timelines. - Farm machinery business expects to reach Rs. 4,000-5,000 crores scale in 4-5 years with initial losses turning profitable within 2-3 years. - Investment in electric three-wheelers is focused on the Zaheerabad plant. - Capital allocation remains prudent, with acquisitions considered only if they deliver strong returns. - Rs. 600 crores provisioned for potential TREM 5 regulation readiness.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Expecting mid to high teen growth rate in automotive volumes for FY25, outpacing muted industry growth. - Targeting 40% market share in specific farm machinery categories like rotavators and harvesters. - Farm business aims at significant scale buildup to reach around Rs. 4000-5000 crores in sales over 4-5 years. - Automotive growth driven by new product launches like 3X0 and new Thar, alongside capacity expansion from 49,000 to 72,000 units per month. - Electric vehicle (EV) volumes expected to form a substantial part of future growth, with 18,000-19,000 monthly capacity coming from EVs. - Farm growth could accelerate if southern regions recover from a low base affected by poor monsoons. - Overall, the company is targeting consistent 15% to 20% EPS growth and maintaining an 18% ROE. - Potential to explore new growth areas and acquisitions if they offer significant shareholder returns.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company targets 15% to 20% EPS growth going forward, maintaining an 18% ROE (Page 15). - Despite recent stellar performance with an 84% CAGR since FY21, growth guidance remains measured, without expecting an 84% jump next year (Page 15). - Farm machinery aims for significant growth, targeting 32%-40% growth in FY24 but fell slightly short of the 40% target, achieving around 32% instead (Page 26). - The farm machinery business is expected to turn profitable within 2-3 years as pricing strategies improve and scale is achieved (Page 26). - Growth gems like Susten and Holidays have explicit 5X to 7X growth aspirations over the next 5 years (Page 19). - Focus remains on steady, consistent delivery on commitments, balancing capital allocation with growth investments (Page 6, 15).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current booking number stands at approximately 220,000 vehicles (including the first hour of XUV 3XO bookings of 50,000). - The booking numbers are rising but the company has stopped sharing hourly updates to avoid frequent disclosures. - The XUV 3XO launch saw a very strong response with 50,000 bookings within the first 60 minutes. - Despite the high booking numbers, the order book has remained relatively stable around this level recently. - The company has proactively cleaned up the XUV700 order book by reconfirming with customers to remove tentative or cancelled orders. - With capacity expansions planned (from 49,000 to 64,000 and later to 72,000 per month), the company expects to reduce long lead times and better serve customers.