MEP Infrast.
Q1 FY17 Earnings Call Analysis
Transport Infrastructure
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company is exploring innovative ways to access long-term, low-cost funding for TOT projects.
- Additional loans may be raised but are expected to be compensated by their InVIT offering, leading to debt downsizing of around Rs.1,400 Crores.
- The InVIT size is expected to be around Rs.1,400 Crores with no leverage initially; tax-efficient structures for fundraising will be disclosed in the DRHP by end of June 2017.
- Preferential allotment or rights issue for raising equity funds is expected, potentially before year-end (2017), depending on market and order inflow.
- Equity requirements for hybrid annuity projects (HAM) of about Rs.400 Crores will be funded over the next 2.5 years, partly through internal accruals and working capital optimization.
- Discussions are underway with financial partners for funding TOT projects, possibly before bidding or alongside.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Equity commitment of about Rs.400 Crores for six HAM projects, with Rs.200 Crores already invested and the balance over next 2.5 years.
- Targeting to bid for additional HAM projects worth Rs.4,000 Crores to Rs.6,000 Crores staggered over time, implying further equity commitment.
- Exploring long-term low-cost funding options for TOT projects; potential to include projects in InVIT for debt downsizing (~Rs.1,400 Crores reduction expected).
- Evaluating pipeline of ~Rs.10,000 Crores worth of Hybrid Annuity projects to bid over next 2-3 months.
- Discussing partnerships with financial investors for TOT project bidding and funding.
- Building InvIT structure for Mumbai Entry Point asset listing expected before September 2017.
Overall, strategic investments focus on hybrid annuity (HAM), TOT projects, and portfolio monetization via InvITs.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- The company expects to bid for hybrid annuity projects worth around Rs.10,000 Crores in the next 2-3 months (Page 7).
- Targeting staggered bidding for HAM projects amounting to Rs.4,000 to Rs.6,000 Crores in FY2018 (Page 15).
- EPC revenues expected to be in excess of Rs.1,200 Crores for FY2018, with Rs.3,836 Crores of projects to be completed in about 2.4 years (Page 6).
- Toll collection revenues have seen a dip due to project completions and handbacks but are expected to revive, with new long-term TOT projects expected to be tendered in the next quarter or by year-end (Pages 8 and 13).
- The business is exploring innovative long-term low-cost funding options, including InVIT structures, to support growth without excessive debt loading (Page 15).
- The company expects operational and financial milestones on hybrid annuity projects to drive revenue growth from 2018 onwards (Page 10).
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company expects strong growth driven by hybrid annuity projects (HAM) with a project cost of Rs.3,836 Crores and staggered equity infusion over 2.5 years.
- Targeting to bid for additional HAM projects worth Rs.4,000 to 6,000 Crores in FY2018, expanding the project portfolio and earnings base.
- Expected EPC revenue for FY2018 is around Rs.1,200 Crores, supporting top-line growth.
- EBITDA margins on HAM projects are estimated between 12-14%, contributing stable operating profits.
- The company plans to reduce debt by Rs.1,300-1,400 Crores via InVIT issuance, improving balance sheet and earnings quality.
- Tolling revenues projected to grow after toll rate hike and operational extensions (e.g., Mumbai Entry Point).
- Focus on low cost, long-term funding sources for TOT projects with expected favorable debt-equity ratios.
- PAT margin improved to 6.3% in FY2017 from negative in FY2016, indicating profitability turnaround and future growth potential.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Current orderbook includes hybrid annuity projects with a bid project cost of Rs. 3,836 Crores.
- Six HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) projects require equity commitment of Rs. 575 Crores in total.
- Equity requirement for these projects is to be funded partly by JV partners (~Rs. 170 Crores) and partly by MEP (~Rs. 400 Crores).
- Plans to bid for additional HAM projects worth Rs. 4,000 to Rs. 6,000 Crores staggered over FY2018.
- TOT (Toll Operate Transfer) projects expected to be in the Rs. 800 to Rs. 1,200 Crores range, with bidding anticipated in Q2 FY2018 or by calendar year-end.
- InVIT is expected to reduce consolidated debt by Rs. 1,300 to Rs. 1,400 Crores.
- EPC revenues expected above Rs. 1,200 Crores in FY2018 from ongoing projects totaling about Rs. 4,000 Crores.
- No significant new orders in short-term tolling currently; focus on long-term hybrid annuity and TOT projects.
