MEP Infrast.
Q1 FY17 Earnings Call Analysis
Transport Infrastructure
revenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company has board approval to raise authorized share capital up to Rs. 300 crores.
- Fundraising is planned through preferential allotment or a rights issue targeting existing shareholders and potentially fresh investors.
- Promoters are committed to infusing a substantial portion of the required equity capital for Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects.
- Equity requirement for six HAM projects is estimated at around Rs. 530-555 crores, with 12-15% equity component.
- Debt-equity ratio for HAM projects is targeted around 25:75 (equity:debt), not including a 40% NHAI grant.
- In-principle bank approvals have been received for financial closure of the six HAM projects, with closures expected between September and December 2016.
- Debt repayment obligations for FY17 are about Rs. 100 crores, ballooning to Rs. 150+ crores in FY18 and increasing subsequently.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- The company is undertaking significant capital investment related to its 6 Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects, with an aggregated project cost of around Rs. 3,800 crores.
- Total EPC work for these projects is about Rs. 3,500 crores.
- Indicative equity requirement is approximately 12-15%, equating to Rs. 530-555 crores, to be infused over the life of the projects.
- The joint venture partner San Jose India will contribute 26% equity in 4 projects and 40% in 2 projects.
- The company has board approval to raise authorized share capital to Rs. 300 crores via preferential allotment or rights issue to meet upfront equity requirements.
- Promoters are committed to infusing a substantial portion of the required capital for equity needs of HAM projects.
- The company is consolidating and financially closing these 6 projects, with financial closures anticipated between September to December 2016.
- Actively monitoring and selectively participating in TOT projects, anticipating future strategic investments there.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- FY 17 revenue remained stable at Rs. 461 crores, in line with FY 16 Q1 despite project maturation.
- Medium-term growth expected through strong visibility from Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects.
- Six HAM projects awarded with order book value of Rs. 3,827 crores, commanding ~19% market share.
- Potential new long-term projects via TOT (Toll-Operate-Transfer) model with estimated bid size of Rs. 75,000 to 1,00,000 crores.
- TOT projects expected to provide long tenure (20-30 years) revenue streams from existing toll roads.
- Financial closures of HAM projects anticipated between Sept-Dec 2016, enabling project commencements.
- The company actively bidding for more long-term and TOT projects to increase order inflow.
- Revenue growth visibility constrained by limited clarity on TOT ticket sizes but expected to improve with project clustering finalization.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Margins on EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) projects are conservatively expected at 14-15%, with potential eventual combined margins exceeding 16-18% due to economies of scale and operational efficiencies (Page 8).
- The company has a robust bidding pipeline, especially in long-term Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) and TOT projects, providing good visibility of future revenues (Page 11).
- The recent award of 6 HAM projects totaling an order book of around Rs. 3,827 crores positions MEP Infra as a leader in this segment, anticipated to support steady revenue growth (Page 1).
- Financial closures for these HAM projects are expected between September to December 2016, securing medium-term operational earnings (Page 1).
- The company expects adequate cash profits to cover near-term debt repayments (~Rs. 100 crores in FY17 increasing over the years), supporting financial stability (Page 12).
- Ongoing participation in TOT projects with long tenure (20-25 years) is expected to enhance long-term revenue visibility (Page 11).
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- MEP Infra currently has a strong order book with 6 awarded Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects, valued at around Rs. 3,827 crores, representing approximately 19% market share in HAM space (Page 1).
- The total project cost for these 6 HAM projects is about Rs. 3,800 crores with EPC work of Rs. 3,500 crores (Page 6).
- The company expects to achieve financial closure for all 6 projects between September and December 2016 (Page 1).
- There is robust visibility and pipeline for long-term projects, including Hybrid Annuity Model projects (6 orders in hand) with project life spans of 15+2.5 years and TOT projects with shelf life of 20-25 years (Page 11).
- The bidding pipeline remains strong, with a company focus on hybrid annuity and TOT projects to expand the long-term portfolio (Page 11).
- The government plans to award 25,000 km highway projects in FY17, with 40% of projects under HAM requiring investments worth Rs. 60,000 crores, offering good opportunities for future orders (Page 2).
