MEP Infrast.
Q1 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis
Transport Infrastructure
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company is engaged in monetizing its existing HAM projects, with the process already underway and discussions with funds in progress; this is expected to enhance equity capacity for bidding future projects.
- The monetization pertains mainly to the older six HAM projects, with plans to replenish equity capacity to bid for an additional few thousand crores of HAM projects.
- Equity infusion for current HAM projects will continue into FY20 and FY21, with remaining equity amounts to be invested in these years.
- There is no explicit mention of new debt fundraising plans; however, stable and reduced debt levels were highlighted, with repayments completed and manageable standalone/consolidated debt figures.
- The timing of new project bidding and equity requirements suggests any significant fundraising need would arise 12 to 18 months after new bids, indicating no immediate aggressive capital raising planned.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- MEP Infrastructure plans equity infusion in HAM projects with remaining equity investment of around ₹85 crores for six HAM projects and approximately ₹130 crores for four new HAM projects, partially extending into FY21.
- There is ongoing equity infusion during FY20, with some portion of the ₹130 crores for new HAM projects expected to be invested in FY21.
- Capacity exists to bid for a few more HAM projects worth around ₹1,000 crore in total.
- The company intends to monetize completed HAM projects to replenish equity capacity for future bidding.
- Process of monetization of HAM projects has already started, even before COD.
- EPC business revenues are expected to remain stable around ₹1,500-1,600 crore in FY21 based on current projects, without new additions.
- No explicit mention of capex beyond equity investments in HAM projects and strategic monetization plans.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- MEP Infrastructure expects strong industry growth in road infrastructure, with highway construction forecasted to grow at around 20% CAGR over the next couple of years.
- The national highway network is expected to expand to nearly 2 lakh kilometers, with a significant pipeline of HAM projects worth around ₹32,000 crores for bidding.
- For FY20, EPC revenues are projected around ₹1,200-1,600 crores, assuming no new project additions.
- Tolling revenues are expected to be around ₹1,800-1,900 crores, contributed by key projects like Delhi entry point, Mumbai, RGSL, and Hyderabad-Bangalore.
- The company foresees a catch-up in construction activity in FY20 after delays in FY19, anticipating consistent progress moving forward.
- MEP intends to continue bidding selectively for HAM and EPC projects, confident of capitalizing on government initiatives and a positive industry environment.
- Overall revenue growth is aligned with industry optimism and project execution timelines.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company reported a 21.2% increase in consolidated turnover to ₹2815 crore in FY19, with an increase in PBT before exceptional items by 17.92%, indicating strong revenue growth.
- FY20 is expected to see catch-up in construction activities and consistent progress, especially in EPC and tolling businesses, after delays in FY19.
- EPC margins are anticipated around 14-15%, with revenues expected in the range of ₹1500-1600 crore for FY21 assuming no new projects.
- Tolling revenues are steady at around ₹1800 crore, with key projects like Delhi entry point (~₹1150-1200 crore revenue) and Mumbai entry point contributing significantly.
- Delhi entry point EBITDA expected around 8-9% for FY20, supported by low debt on the project.
- The company plans continued focus on timely completion of HAM projects, with a strong order book (~₹6500 crore) and capacity to bid for new HAM and EPC projects contributing to future growth.
- Overall, industry growth plus execution efficiencies support positive earnings and profit growth trajectory.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Current order book is approximately ₹6,000 crores, spread over two and a half years.
- Conservative run rate projection for revenues from this order book is about ₹1,500-1,800 crores annually.
- Total HAM projects awarded so far have a value of around ₹1,20,000 crores, covering over 6,000 kilometers.
- There is an additional industry pipeline with HAM projects worth roughly ₹32,000 crores pending for bidding.
- Around 1 lakh kilometers of the planned 2 lakh kilometers of national highways are yet to be bid.
- The appetite among players to aggressively bid for new projects is moderate due to substantial unexecuted order books.
- MEP has received appointed dates for all 10 HAM projects, with recent project commencements impacting the current financial year.
