MEP Infrast.

Q1 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis

Transport Infrastructure

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company is engaged in monetizing its existing HAM projects, with the process already underway and discussions with funds in progress; this is expected to enhance equity capacity for bidding future projects. - The monetization pertains mainly to the older six HAM projects, with plans to replenish equity capacity to bid for an additional few thousand crores of HAM projects. - Equity infusion for current HAM projects will continue into FY20 and FY21, with remaining equity amounts to be invested in these years. - There is no explicit mention of new debt fundraising plans; however, stable and reduced debt levels were highlighted, with repayments completed and manageable standalone/consolidated debt figures. - The timing of new project bidding and equity requirements suggests any significant fundraising need would arise 12 to 18 months after new bids, indicating no immediate aggressive capital raising planned.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- MEP Infrastructure plans equity infusion in HAM projects with remaining equity investment of around ₹85 crores for six HAM projects and approximately ₹130 crores for four new HAM projects, partially extending into FY21. - There is ongoing equity infusion during FY20, with some portion of the ₹130 crores for new HAM projects expected to be invested in FY21. - Capacity exists to bid for a few more HAM projects worth around ₹1,000 crore in total. - The company intends to monetize completed HAM projects to replenish equity capacity for future bidding. - Process of monetization of HAM projects has already started, even before COD. - EPC business revenues are expected to remain stable around ₹1,500-1,600 crore in FY21 based on current projects, without new additions. - No explicit mention of capex beyond equity investments in HAM projects and strategic monetization plans.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- MEP Infrastructure expects strong industry growth in road infrastructure, with highway construction forecasted to grow at around 20% CAGR over the next couple of years. - The national highway network is expected to expand to nearly 2 lakh kilometers, with a significant pipeline of HAM projects worth around ₹32,000 crores for bidding. - For FY20, EPC revenues are projected around ₹1,200-1,600 crores, assuming no new project additions. - Tolling revenues are expected to be around ₹1,800-1,900 crores, contributed by key projects like Delhi entry point, Mumbai, RGSL, and Hyderabad-Bangalore. - The company foresees a catch-up in construction activity in FY20 after delays in FY19, anticipating consistent progress moving forward. - MEP intends to continue bidding selectively for HAM and EPC projects, confident of capitalizing on government initiatives and a positive industry environment. - Overall revenue growth is aligned with industry optimism and project execution timelines.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company reported a 21.2% increase in consolidated turnover to ₹2815 crore in FY19, with an increase in PBT before exceptional items by 17.92%, indicating strong revenue growth. - FY20 is expected to see catch-up in construction activities and consistent progress, especially in EPC and tolling businesses, after delays in FY19. - EPC margins are anticipated around 14-15%, with revenues expected in the range of ₹1500-1600 crore for FY21 assuming no new projects. - Tolling revenues are steady at around ₹1800 crore, with key projects like Delhi entry point (~₹1150-1200 crore revenue) and Mumbai entry point contributing significantly. - Delhi entry point EBITDA expected around 8-9% for FY20, supported by low debt on the project. - The company plans continued focus on timely completion of HAM projects, with a strong order book (~₹6500 crore) and capacity to bid for new HAM and EPC projects contributing to future growth. - Overall, industry growth plus execution efficiencies support positive earnings and profit growth trajectory.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current order book is approximately ₹6,000 crores, spread over two and a half years. - Conservative run rate projection for revenues from this order book is about ₹1,500-1,800 crores annually. - Total HAM projects awarded so far have a value of around ₹1,20,000 crores, covering over 6,000 kilometers. - There is an additional industry pipeline with HAM projects worth roughly ₹32,000 crores pending for bidding. - Around 1 lakh kilometers of the planned 2 lakh kilometers of national highways are yet to be bid. - The appetite among players to aggressively bid for new projects is moderate due to substantial unexecuted order books. - MEP has received appointed dates for all 10 HAM projects, with recent project commencements impacting the current financial year.