MEP Infrast.

Q4 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis

Transport Infrastructure

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 4orderbook: Yes
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- For FY2019, MEP Infrastructure expects a total topline of around Rs.4000 to Rs.4200 Crores, driven by expanding EPC and tolling revenues. - EPC revenue target for FY2019 is conservatively Rs.1600 Crores, potentially up to Rs.1800 Crores depending on new orders. - Tolling revenue forecasted between Rs.2400 to Rs.2600 Crores for FY2019, with strong visibility of Rs.2000+ Crores annually locked in for 4-5 years. - Revenue split expected to shift to approximately 65:35 (Tolling:EPC) in FY2019 due to full-year impact of Delhi Entry Point and increased HAM EPC orders. - HAM projects shortlisted for potential participation worth Rs.10,000 to Rs.12,000 Crores from an overall Rs.16,000 Crores pipeline. - Anticipate continued growth in toll traffic volumes and operational efficiencies leading to higher revenues, including on projects like Delhi Entry Point and Rajiv Gandhi Sea Link.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- MEP Infrastructure expects robust growth driven by tolling projects and HAM EPC contracts. - Target EPC revenue for FY2019 is Rs.1,600 Crores conservatively, potentially up to Rs.1,800 Crores. - Total topline expected at Rs.4,000 to Rs.4,200 Crores for FY2019. - Revenue split for FY2019 projected at 65% tolling and 35% HAM EPC. - Delhi Entry Point project alone expected to contribute Rs.1,350-1,400 Crores annually. - Tolling revenue from key projects anticipated at Rs.2,400 to Rs.2,600 Crores in FY2019. - EBITDA margins expected to normalize around 13%-15% for HAM projects; overall company EBITDA margin may slightly reduce due to increased EPC business share. - Strong long-term visibility with 90%-95% tolling contracts locked in for next 4-5 years. - Expected PAT improvement as EPC margin continues to be strong and operations scale.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current EPC order book for six hybrid annuity projects: Rs.3,040 Crores (Q3 FY2018). - Total Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects tendered by NHAI before March 31, 2018: approx. Rs.58,000 to Rs.60,000 Crores. - Shortlisted HAM projects worth Rs.10,000 to Rs.12,000 Crores for participation from a Rs.16,000 Crores portfolio. - Expected EPC revenue target for FY2019: Rs.1,600 Crores conservatively, possibly up to Rs.1,800 Crores. - HAM order book capability with current balance sheet can support an additional couple of thousand Crores in orders. - Order pipeline well-geared to sustain or grow order book size over the coming years. - Participation in tolling projects and possible future TOT projects under evaluation to expand order book.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- On the topic of capital raising, Murzash Manekshana mentioned that they are strictly advised against commenting on a public call regarding fundraising plans. - Therefore, no specific details were shared about progress or plans related to raising capital through debt or equity during this call. - The discussion indicates sensitivity and confidentiality around such financial maneuvers at this time.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Total equity requirement for HAM projects is Rs.575 Crores, with Rs.400 Crores to be deployed by MEP and Rs.175 Crores by JV partner. - Rs.250+ Crores equity already infused by MEP; remaining Rs.150 Crores to be infused over next 1.5-2 years. - Debt for HAM projects totals Rs.1721 Crores, with Rs.400 Crores drawn so far; balance to be drawn over next two years. - Participation planned in HAM projects worth Rs.10,000 to 12,000 Crores out of a Rs.16,000 Crores shortlisted portfolio. - Expect to add a couple of thousand Crores more to HAM order book leveraging existing balance sheet. - Firm ongoing evaluation of new HAM and TOT projects for future bidding and strategic growth. - No specific details shared on capital raising or other strategic investments as management refrained from public comment.