Modi Naturals

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Agricultural Food & other Products

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 1margin: Category 1orderbook: No
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- For the ethanol capacity expansion (Rs 100 crore CAPEX), about Rs 50 crore is expected to be funded through internal accruals. - The remaining Rs 50 crore will be raised either through debt or equity. - The management has not yet made a final decision on the mix of debt and equity for this funding. - No specific mention of any immediate or additional fundraising through debt or equity beyond this planned capital raise.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Modi Naturals Limited is expanding its Ethanol division capacity from 130 KLPD to 310 KLPD, adding 180 KLPD. - Estimated capital expenditure for this expansion is approximately Rs. 100 crores. - Engineering work for the new plant is completed; construction is expected to start around Q3 FY25 and complete by the second half of FY26. - Funding for the Rs. 100 crore capex will be partly through internal accruals (around Rs. 50 crores) and the remainder via debt or equity, with the final decision pending. - The company plans increased ad spends and investments in the Consumer division, aiming for faster growth fueled by enhanced cash flows. - No current plans for further capacity expansion beyond the 310 KLPD ethanol plant at the current location have been considered yet.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- FY25: Guided for 75% revenue growth, targeting Rs. 700 crore consolidated revenue (from Rs. 400 crore in FY24). - FY26-27: High growth expected driven by Ethanol and Consumer divisions. - Ethanol division capacity expansion from 130 KL to 310 KL by H2 FY26 will boost growth for FY26 and FY27. - Consumer division anticipated to continue consistent growth with increased ad spends and new product launches. - Bulk business margins expected to improve; steady EBITDA margin targeted around 5%-6%. - Overall focus on scaling Consumer division via quick commerce, modern trade, and general trade channels. - New products like multi-grain pasta, peanut butter, and ready-to-mix beverages are being scaled up. - Revenue split expectation FY25: Consumer Rs. 210 crore, Bulk Rs. 215 crore, Ethanol Rs. 275 crore.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Modi Naturals forecasts a consolidated revenue growth of 75% for FY25, targeting Rs. 700 crores (up from Rs. 400 crores in FY24). - EBITDA for FY25 is guided at Rs. 50 crores, with PAT expected at Rs. 30 crores, a significant improvement from prior years. - The Ethanol division is expected to maintain 10-12% EBITDA margins in the near-to-medium term, with potential operational leverage as new capacity comes online in H2 FY26. - ROCE for FY25 is approximately 18.5% on a consolidated basis, suggesting healthy capital efficiency. - Expansion of Ethanol capacity from 130 KL to 310 KL by H2 FY26 will contribute to growth in FY26 and FY27. - Consumer division growth is supported by increased ad spends, new product launches, and expanded distribution, targeting faster growth. - The Bulk division is expected to stabilize EBITDA margins around 5-6% moving forward, recovering from past losses.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company has received a confirmed order for 41,600 kiloliters in the Ethanol division. - This confirmed order comes with purchase orders released quarterly, starting with the 1st quarter. - The total order value is approximately Rs. 300 crores, translating to around Rs. 72 per liter based on current tender prices. - Price adjustments during the year can occur through corrigenda, though none have been issued yet. - There is no expectation of a shortfall from the allocated order volume, barring operational inefficiencies.