NCC Ltd

Q4 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Construction

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no explicit mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the transcript. - The company’s existing debt level has increased to Rs. 2,415 crores as of Q3 FY25, partly due to delays in payments and increased unbilled revenue. - Management expects debt levels to reduce in the near term, primarily through improved collections, especially in Q4. - Regarding future debt targets, the management is currently unable to provide a specific estimate and is awaiting government payments to improve. - No comments were made about any planned equity fundraising. - Capital expenditure for regular projects is maintained within budget with no indication of capital-intensive projects that would require new fundraising at this time. In summary, there is no disclosed ongoing or planned new fundraising through debt or equity; focus remains on optimizing existing resources and improving collections.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- CAPEX for the current financial year was budgeted at Rs. 250 crores for regular projects. - As of December, Rs. 223 crores have been spent, with the remaining Rs. 25-27 crores expected to be utilized as per project requirements. - No significant capital-intensive projects are planned in the near term; CAPEX will be incurred on an as-needed basis. - Equity investments are fully received; loan amounts of about Rs. 374 crores are expected to be realized over the next couple of years. - No new strategic capital investments have been specifically mentioned. - The company plans to monitor opportunities and may invest based on project needs and government actions.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- FY25 revenue growth guidance revised downwards to around 5% due to slow execution and elongated billing/payment cycles, impacted mainly by general and state elections (Page 4, 7). - In Q4 FY25, execution expected to be between Rs. 6,000 - 6,400 crores, similar or slightly lower year-on-year, indicating a flat or slight decline quarter-over-quarter (Page 19). - For FY26, no formal guidance given yet; budget meetings scheduled in April-May to finalize numbers (Page 12, 15). - Historically, the company has shown ~25% growth over the last 3 years; expect possible return to growth in FY26, though no definite numbers now (Page 7). - Order inflow guidance for FY25 maintained at Rs. 20,000 - 22,000 crores with L1 orders of Rs. 8,000 - 10,000 crores expected to convert in Q4, supporting future revenue base (Page 9, 8). - Improved ground-level execution and collection expected post-elections, potentially supporting improved revenue momentum going forward (Page 11, 15).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Revenue growth guidance for FY25 has been revised downward to around 5% due to election-related execution slowdowns. - EBITDA margin for FY25 is expected to be around 9.25%, with Q4 margin anticipated at about 9.5%, considered sustainable. - For FY26, management has not provided specific guidance yet; budget meetings and project closures by March end will inform future estimates. - Historically, the company has shown around 25% growth over the last three years; they remain optimistic about growth resuming post-election impact. - EPS for Q3 FY25 stood at 8.70 with an expected increase to 10.10 by March. - Management expects improved collections and execution post the government settling post-elections, which may positively affect earnings growth going forward.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current order book stands at Rs. 55,548 crore as of December 2024. - Order book at beginning of the year was Rs. 57,536 crore. - Orders received during 9 months FY25: Rs. 13,608 crore (Rs. 8,440 crore in Q3). - Executed work in first 9 months: Rs. 15,590 crore. - Prospective project pipeline is about Rs. 2.45 lakh crore across seven verticals and many states. - L1 projects in pipeline valued roughly at Rs. 8,000-Rs. 10,000 crore expected to convert into LOAs in Q4 FY25. - Order inflow guidance maintained at Rs. 20,000 to Rs. 22,000 crore for FY25. - Order book by division: - Buildings: Rs. 21,085 crore (~38%) - Transportation: Rs. 10,800 crore (~19%) - Electrical T&D: Rs. 10,633 crore (~19%) - Water: Rs. 5,450 crore (~10%) - Irrigation: Rs. 4,496 crore