NCC Ltd

Q4 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis

Construction

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- **Current Consolidated Order Book:** INR 79,571 crores as of December 31, 2025. - Standalone: INR 72,748 crores - Subsidiaries: INR 6,823 crores - **Standalone Order Book:** Around INR 72,748 crores (confirmed on Q3 FY26). - **Electrical Order Book:** - Consolidated: INR 14,323 crores (18% of INR 79,571 crores) - Standalone: INR 13,523 crores - **JJM Outstanding Order Book:** Approximately INR 7,000 crores, reduced from INR 1,700 crores last quarter in UP to INR 1,200 crores currently. - **Bid Pipeline:** Over INR 2 lakh crores for FY 2026. - **L1 Projects:** Approximately INR 2,000 crores. - Execution is gathering momentum, especially on projects that had earlier been in the mobilization stage.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no explicit mention of any fresh fundraising through equity in the document. - Debt levels are expected to be around INR 2,400 crores (gross debt) by the end of the year, factoring in capex and expected improvements in receivables. - Capex planned for FY '26 is about INR 1,050 crores, with around INR 400 crores expected as cash outgo in Q4, likely funded partly through equipment loans (only 10% margin money needed). - Equipment financing involves phased funding, reducing immediate debt impact. - No specific new fundraising through fresh debt or equity beyond these planned borrowings and investments is mentioned.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Capex incurred of INR265 crores in 9 months FY '26; budget revised to INR1,050 crores for the year. - CWIP includes TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) equipment imported but not yet operational. - Planned capex for FY '27 includes around INR300-350 crores for a new Mining division project. - Additional investment of about INR120 crores pending in smart meter projects, with total investment so far at INR377-380 crores. - TBM and other equipment purchases ongoing, phased investments expected. - No specific capex target fixed for FY '27 yet; details to be shared later. - Capex related to strategic projects like Mining JV (INR6,800 crores project at Amrapali) ongoing, with equipment mobilization started, work expected to commence soon. - Investment in subsidiaries stood at INR896 crores as of December 31, 2025. - Loans to group companies reduced to INR233 crores due to merger.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- NCC Limited has withdrawn formal guidance for FY '26 due to execution challenges, mainly delays in the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) projects and payment issues. - They expect good growth in Q4 FY '26 as payments start coming through and execution momentum picks up. - Execution for JJM projects in FY '26 is expected between INR4,000 to INR5,000 crores, lower than initially targeted due to delays. - For FY '27, detailed revenue guidance will be shared after a thorough project-wise evaluation in April; a directional growth of around 15% is being contemplated, but it is yet uncertain. - Payment delays and clearances (right of way, permits) remain key variables impacting growth and execution. - A robust order book (~INR68,000 crores) could support higher revenue in FY '27 if execution normalizes. - The company expects unbilled revenue conversion and improving working capital cycle to positively impact Q4 revenue recognition.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- EBITDA margin at standalone level was 8.1% for 9 months FY '26, with potential to improve to around 9% in future quarters (Page 18). - Expectation of good revenue growth in Q4 FY '26 driven by improved execution and payments, especially from JJM projects (Pages 15, 18). - Unbilled revenues are expected to convert into billing and realization in Q4 FY '26, aiding revenue growth and improving working capital cycle (Page 15). - EBITDA and revenue growth visibility for FY '27 is pending detailed project evaluations; directional growth expected but exact guidance deferred until April (Pages 8, 9, 16). - Debt levels expected around INR 2,400 crores end of the year, with capex investments ongoing (Page 13). - Overall, management anticipates a recovery and improved profitability from Q4 FY '26 onwards, with growth resuming after a subdued FY '26.