Nexus Select Trust

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 2orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Nexus Select Trust currently has a low Loan-to-Value (LTV) of around 15%, with an existing net debt of INR 3,500 crores. - The REIT regulations allow them to raise debt up to 49% LTV, implying a potential war chest of approximately $1 billion for acquisitions. - They are planning to maintain a stable LTV in the high 20s to around 30%, aligning with comparable REITs. - The team continues discussions with developers for asset acquisition which may involve a combination of debt and equity (e.g., swapping shares for units). - Recent debt raised is INR 22.5 billion (approx. $300 million) at an average cost of 8.2%, better than projections. - No explicit mention of immediate equity fundraising; acquisitions likely to be funded through the trust’s balance sheet using the available credit headroom and potentially share swaps.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Nexus Select Trust focuses on acquisitions of underinvested or undermanaged A-grade malls, with about 50-55 such malls available outside top developers’ portfolios for potential acquisition. - They have a war chest of close to $1 billion for acquisitions, supported by a strong balance sheet and low LTV of around 15%. - Capital investments focus on upgrading assets through better brand mix, asset improvements, and marketing activities to drive value creation and rental growth. - They target assets where they have management control and can apply value-add strategies to increase NOI over a 2-3 year horizon. - No specific numbers on new capex provided, but capital deployment is expected primarily via acquisitions on the Trust balance sheet. - Ongoing asset repurposing includes replacing hypermarkets and department stores with growing categories like electronics, beauty, fitness, and entertainment to optimize space and increase revenues.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Consumption growth in Q1 FY24 was strong at 18% like-for-like, outperforming the broader market growth of 8-10%. - Top-performing malls have consistently achieved around 18% consumption growth, with marquee assets like Select Citywalk seeing +27%. - Rental growth is aligned with consumption growth; about 87% of revenue is fixed, and 13% variable, linked to sales, allowing upside with volume increases. - The leasing market is robust with 21% re-leasing spreads, driving rental income growth. - The Trust projects revenue from operations growth around 7-8% CAGR based on market sensitivities. - Strategic focus on acquiring underinvested malls and adding value through brand mix and marketing supports long-term growth. - Strong tenant relationships and active tenant sales tracking enable responsive management and sustainable revenue increases. - Future distribution to investors will reflect growth, with quarterly payouts starting post Q2 FY24.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Consumption growth in Q1 FY24 was strong at 18% like-for-like versus a market growth of 8-10%, indicating outperformance. - Top performing malls and cities (e.g., Mumbai, Bangalore) are showing 400-1000 bps higher consumption growth than their markets. - NOI grew by 18% year-on-year, with NOI margin improving to 74%, up 360 bps, close to the targeted 75%. - Re-leasing spreads stood at 21%, supporting rental growth alongside consumption gains. - Management projects achieving FY24 earnings in line with projections disclosed in the Final Offer Document (FOD). - Growth across metro and mini metro cities is balanced, with some smaller markets like Bhubaneswar and Mysuru performing well. - Minimal cash is retained (2 months working capital), with up to 100% distributions planned, reflecting strong cash flow generation. - A $1 billion acquisition war chest and active pipeline provide inorganic growth opportunities. Overall, sustained like-for-like consumption growth, operational efficiency, and disciplined acquisitions support positive future earnings growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

The transcript from Nexus Select Trust's Q1 FY24 earnings call does not specifically mention details about "Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders." The focus is primarily on consumption growth, acquisition pipeline, rental growth, occupancy, supply-demand dynamics, and financial performance metrics. Key related points include: - Active M&A pipeline: Evaluating acquisition of about 50-60 A grade malls, focusing on core markets and assets where value can be added. - Approximately 30 million square feet of attractive acquisition opportunities available outside developer/ operator-owned malls. - Supply addition expected in A grade malls segment is about 3.5 to 4 million square feet annually. - Demand side for retail space by brands estimated at 10 to 12 million square feet conservatively. - Leasing activity strong with 0.4 million square feet leased in Q1 FY24 across 186 deals. No explicit orderbook or pending order figures were shared.