NLC India Ltd

Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
revenue: Category 2margin: Category 1orderbook: No informationfundraise: No informationcapex: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

The transcript does not explicitly mention any current or future fundraising plans through debt or equity for NLC India Limited. Key relevant points include: - Formation of JV with Rajasthan government for lignite-based thermal and solar power projects (74-26 ownership), but no mention of fundraising specifics. - CAPEX discussed for FGD systems and mining expansions, indicating ongoing investments. - No direct reference to issuing equity or raising debt. - Monetization plans discussed for renewable subsidiaries to focus on asset monetization, which may indirectly relate to fund-raising but not explicitly detailed. - Expansion projects like Talabira, Ghatampur, and coal mine developments indicate capital-intensive activities, but funding sources are not specified. - No clear statement about new debt or equity issuance in the transcript. Hence, no explicit current/future new fundraising via debt or equity is stated in the document.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FGD (Flue Gas Desulfurization) Capex varies by plant: NTPL (~Rs. 625 Cr), NNTP (~Rs. 665 Cr), NUPPL (~Rs. 979 Cr), TPS-I expansion (process ongoing). Completion aimed before Government of India timeline. - TPS-II 2nd expansion revised to 2x500 MW lignite power stations due to technology availability issues; feasibility report near completion; tender to be initiated soon. - Commercial coal mines North Dhadu and Machhakata targeted for production start within 36 months, ahead of government timelines (57 and 55 months respectively); mine plans and GRs prepared. - Talabira Thermal Power Plant: Main plant package awarded to BHEL; Unit#1 expected COD by July 2028; land possession ongoing. - Ghatampur Power Plant Unit #1 near COD by Sept 2024; Units #2 and #3 targeted for Nov 2024 and Mar 2025. - Renewable capacity addition: Target of reaching 10 GW by 2030; ongoing 2 GW solar projects in Gujarat and Rajasthan; 300 MW Barsingsar solar to be commissioned this financial year; remaining 1.7 GW targeted by mid next financial year. - Capex for mining includes commercial coal mines like North Dhadu and Machhakata. - JV formation with Rajasthan planned for 500 MW lignite-based thermal and 2 GW renewable (mainly solar) projects; JV to be formed next quarter; solar project to complete within 2 years, lignite plant in 4 years. - Separate subsidiaries NLC India Renewable Energy Ltd (1.4 GW renewable capacity transfer) and NLC India Green Energy Ltd (new capacity addition) formed to focus on asset monetization and capacity addition.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- NLC India aims to increase mining capacity to 100 million tons by 2030, more than doubling current capacity of ~44 million tons (Page 9, 8). - Coal blocks like North Dhadu and Machhakata are targeted for commercial coal sales in open markets to fetch higher revenues (Page 9). - Renewable capacity in pipeline includes around 2 GW (mainly solar) in Gujarat and Rajasthan, with 300 MW solar at Barsingsar to be commissioned in the current FY and balance by next FY Q3 (Page 7). - Thermal capacity additions planned before 2030 include 3,200 MW at Talabira, 1,000-1,500 MW at Neyveli, and 500 MW in Rajasthan JV (Page 12). - JV with Rajasthan government for 500 MW lignite-based thermal and ~2 GW renewable (solar) power projects, targeting commissioning within 2 years for solar and 4 years for lignite plant (Page 13). - Power generation and coal production in Q1 FY25 showed strong growth (~13.5% and 35% YoY respectively) indicating positive volume trends (Page 3). Overall, strong growth in mining, renewables, and thermal capacities is expected to drive future sales and revenues.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Significant growth seen in Q1 FY 2024-25 with standalone PAT up 49.83% YoY to Rs. 495.98 Crore; consolidated PAT up 37.02% to Rs. 566.69 Crore. - Power generation increased by 13.48% YoY; lignite production rose 22.17%; coal production up 35.27% indicating strong operational momentum. - Under-recovery is reducing (Q1 FY 24-25: Rs. 139.89 Crore vs Rs. 209 Crore prior year), expected to decline further with long-term TPS-II modifications starting September. - Thermal capacity additions (~4,700 MW across Talabira, Neyveli, Rajasthan) to be completed before 2030, no new thermal plants planned beyond 2030. - Renewable solar capacity of 2 GW planned by 2030, with 300 MW addition expected in FY 24-25; long-term target to reach 10 GW total capacity by 2030. - Coal mining capacity expanding to 100 million tons by 2030, doubling mining regulated equity, improving fuel security and earnings. - Overall, strong growth in production, capacity, and sales supported by capacity expansion and mining ramp-up underpin improved future earnings and EPS trajectory.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company recently received an order related to Odisha plant and Odisha Talabira mine; work on impact assessment is ongoing (Page 13). - Tender for TPS-II 2nd expansion modified from 2x660 MW to 2x500 MW due to technology availability; feasibility report to be finalized soon and tender to start immediately (Page 6). - MoUs and Joint Ventures (JVs) are forming, such as with Rajasthan Government for lignite-based (500 MW) and solar power plants (2 GW), with JV formation expected within the next quarter and fast-track activities planned (Page 13-14). - Mining contracts: MDO contract for North Dhadu coal mine is underway for coal extraction within 36 months (Page 6). - Key project timelines include commissioning of Ghatampur Power Plant unit #1 expected by mid-September 2024, units #2 and #3 by Nov 2024 and Mar 2025 respectively; Talabira Power Plant unit#1 commissioning expected by July 2028 (Page 5-6). - FGD projects are ongoing at various plants with different CAPEX; tendering for TPS-I expansion FGD is in progress (Page 8).