NLC India Ltd

Q3 FY22 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- NLC India Limited is undertaking significant CapEx plans totaling around INR 72,000 crore plus over the next eight years, with targets of INR 8,244 crore for FY 2023-24. - The company has revised its corporate plan to avoid seeking any financial assistance in terms of equity. - It is focused on internal generation of funds and improving revenues through commissioned projects like Ghatampur (1,980 MW) and NNTPP. - Rakesh Kumar confirmed there is no plan to raise equity in the near term to finance expansions due to consolidated net worth and improved cash flows. - No explicit mention was made about new debt fundraising, but ongoing large CapEx projects and joint ventures indicate possible continued debt utilization or structured financing. - The company aims to balance shareholder dividends with growth capital requirements without adverse impact.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Total CapEx target up to 2030: INR 72,000 crore plus, with INR 8,244 crore planned for FY23-24, likely increasing thereafter. - FY22-23 CapEx target: INR 2,920 crore split as follows: - Mining projects: INR 190 crore (including Talabira mine 2 & 3, area extension, South Pachwara mine JV). - Power sector: INR 860 crore (including NNTPS, NUPPL, Odisha thermal plant). - Joint ventures: INR 1,770 crore (Pachwara INR 110 crore, NTPL FGD INR 250 crore, NUPPL Ghatampur INR 1,510 crore). - Coal gasification project approved by board with a cost of Rs. 4,394 crore; EPC tender initiated. - Talabira coal power plant and Neyveli 1320 MW power plant tenders progressing; award targeted by current financial year. - Ghatampur project (1,980 MW) progressing, expected to commission within a year. - Corporate plan revised to avoid equity infusion; growth to be funded internally without affecting dividend policy.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- NLC India Limited targets significant capacity expansion, with total CapEx planned at over INR 72,000 crore up to 2030 to drive growth. - FY 2023-24 CapEx target is INR 8,244 crore, expected to increase in subsequent years, supporting higher production and sales. - Coal production target for current year is 13 million tons, nearly doubling previous year's 6.35 million tons. - Coal supply prioritized to internal plants (NTPL) and NTPC under MOUs, with surplus coal to be auctioned, reflecting strong demand. - Renewable energy capacity completed 1,421 MW with an equity investment of INR 1,675 crore; no current solar projects under construction but planned expansions implied. - Power generation and exports show modest growth; coal production and sales increasingly contributing to revenue. - Emphasis on augmenting lignite and coal supplies in demand-constrained regions like Rajasthan to meet customer needs and improve realizations.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- NLCIL's profit after tax for H1 FY23 rose by 77.76% to Rs. 985.86 crore compared to previous year. - Coal mining profits significantly increased (Rs. 819.36 crore in H1 FY23 vs Rs. 377.24 crore last year). - Expansion projects like Ghatampur (1,980 MW) nearing commissioning, expected to boost revenue and profits. - NTPL power plant started contributing to revenue, enhancing earnings. - CapEx plan of Rs. 72,000+ crore till 2030 to drive growth; FY24 CapEx target is Rs. 8,244 crore. - Improving coal production and sales (target 13 million tons FY23) support operating income. - Dividend payout expected to be maintained alongside growth plans, indicating confidence in earnings growth. - Reduction in under-recovery in thermal segment, and mitigation of surcharge risks improve profitability. - Strong operational performance with increasing PLF (up to 92.27% in NNTPP) enhances operating income. Overall, NLCIL expects steady growth in earnings driven by capacity additions, improved coal production, and efficient operations.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The Talabira coal power plant tender for 3x800 MW is under techno-commercial bid evaluation, with L&T and BHEL as bidders. The process is progressing with finalization expected soon. (Page 6) - The estimated cost for the Talabira project is Rs. 19,422 crore, combining three major packages into a single package for bidding. (Page 6) - For the Neyveli 1320 MW power plant, discussions on land acquisition and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) progress well; PPA signed for 400 MW with KSEB, completing 2,000 MW out of 2,400 MW capacity with other PPAs already signed. (Page 6) - GA4 package in Ghatampur valued at Rs. 979.61 crore was awarded on 30th September to expedite project completion. (Page 4) - Overall, large projects are moving forward with ongoing evaluations and contract awards, but some technical issues remain under resolution. (Pages 4-6)