Olectra Greentech Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Automobiles

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 2orderbook: No
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Olectra Greentech is setting up a new Greenfield plant to meet current order book demands; expected operational within 12-18 months (targeting Q4 start of production). - The new plant is being built with an initial capacity for 5,000 buses, expandable up to 10,000. - Capital expenditure (capex) for balancing equipment to add capacity is estimated at ₹100-200 Crores. - The construction contract for the new plant has been awarded to MEIL; funding for this is expected through internal accruals and interim loans until the QIP (Qualified Institutional Placement) is finalized. - The company is actively pursuing equity fundraising through institutional investors (financial, not strategic) to support growth and expansion. - Localization efforts are ongoing to mitigate risks related to import restrictions, especially on battery cells.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Company targets delivery of 8,500 to 10,000 electric buses over the next 2 years, with a planned ramp-up post-FY2025. - Current year (FY2024) guidance: 1,200-1,500 buses; next year (FY2025) guidance: at least 2,500 buses; balance deliveries will spill into FY2026. - New Greenfield plant expected to start production in Q4 FY2024 with initial capacity around 5,000 buses, expandable to 10,000 buses annually. - Market size for electric buses expected to grow significantly, with projections of 1 to 2 lakh electric buses by 2030. - Market share aspirations aim at leadership with ~25% share, targeting ~12,500 buses on a base of 50,000 buses over medium term. - Insulator segment to maintain steady niche market leadership in a 350-400 Crore market. - Expected profit margins on higher volumes: 10-12%.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Olectra Greentech aims for strong growth trajectory in coming quarters and years, driven by large order book and expanding capacity. - Margins expected to be healthy with 10-12% range at higher volumes, improving overall profitability. - The company plans conservative capacity ramp-up: targeting delivery of 1200-1500 buses in FY2024, 2500 buses in FY2025, and substantial increase in FY2026 with new plant expansion (up to 10,000 capacity). - Growth supported by government policies promoting electric buses and vehicle scrappage, with estimated market demand of 1 to 2 lakh buses annually in 5 years. - Current net order book stands at 8,344 buses, ensuring revenue visibility. - Despite quarter-on-quarter fluctuations, longer-term earnings expected to improve with scale and operational efficiencies. - Battery certification delays impacted short-term revenue but are now resolved, enabling smoother deliveries and order fulfillment.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current net order book stands at approximately 8,344 buses after delivering 75 buses in the quarter (Page 2). - Major recent order: Consortium with associate EVEY Trans secured MSRTC order for 5,150 buses worth over ₹10,000 Crores (Page 2). - Additional orders from BEST Mumbai totaling about 2,080 buses, plus other various tenders including BEST (Page 4). - Order book execution plan: - FY2024: Target to deliver around 1,200-1,500 buses (Page 9, 11, 12). - FY2025: Target to deliver about 2,500 buses (Page 11, 12). - Balance (~5,000 buses) to be delivered in FY2026 (Page 11, 12). - New plant expected to start operations in Q4 FY2024 to ramp up capacity to meet order book (Page 11, 12). - Capacity expansion aims to achieve initially 5,000 buses/year, expandable up to 10,000 (Page 9, 11). Summary: The company holds a robust order book of ~8,300 buses with staggered delivery over the next 2-3 years supported by upcoming capacity expansions.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Olectra is actively working on raising funds via equity through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), with shareholder approval already obtained. - Due to volatile market conditions since January, the QIP process has been delayed, and Olectra continues to explore possibilities. - Meanwhile, for the construction of a new plant (contract awarded to MEIL), funding is planned through internal accruals and possibly interim loans. - If debt funding is pursued, the expected interest rate range is between 8-9%. - The company is seeking good-profile institutional investors (like Nomura, Jupiter, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs) who will remain invested long-term. - No mention of immediate plans for strategic investors; focus is currently on financial institutional investors.