Olectra Greentech Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Automobiles

Full Stock Analysis
margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Olectra Greentech is proceeding with internal approvals and raising debt for immediate capex expansion due to delay in equity fund-raising, targeting a debt-equity mix of approximately 65%-75% debt and 25%-35% internal accruals. - They are constructing a new factory at Seetharampur spread over 150 acres, with one shed expected to be operational by December end. This plant will increase production capacity, aiming for operational capacity ramp-up in FY 2025-26. - Orders for plant machinery are being placed with reputed OEMs; discussions and negotiations are underway but not yet concluded. - Initial operations at the new factory may be manual, with plans to introduce automation later. MEIL is handling civil construction work. - Strategic investments include a strong focus on R&D with over 50 personnel, notably for developing the electric tipper truck designed in-house. - Targeting sizable ramp-ups in production and order fulfillment supported by this capex.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Targeting sales of 2,500 to 3,000 electric buses in the next financial year (FY25). - Significant ramp-up expected in FY25-26, with volumes projected at 4,000 to 5,000 buses. - Overall plan to complete current order book of approximately 8,200 buses within the next two years. - Production capacity expected to increase substantially once the new Seetharampur factory (over 150 acres) becomes fully operational. - Market expected to grow to about 40,000 electric buses over the next 2-4 years, with Olectra aiming to be the market leader. - Strong pipeline with major orders like 5,150 buses from MSRTC, 2,400 from BEST, and upcoming order possibilities from ~169 cities under Prime Minister e-Seva program. - Electric tipper truck segment traction expected to build in next 6-12 months with increased enquiries converting into orders, indicating growth beyond buses.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The management is confident of delivering better results in H2 FY24 compared to H1, striving to cover up shortfalls experienced in Q1. (Page 17) - Strong order book with 5,150 buses ordered from MSRTC and expected orders from BEST support future growth. (Page 17) - Targeting production of 2,500 to 3,000 buses in FY25 and 4,000 to 5,000 buses in FY26, indicating significant ramp-up. (Page 15) - With new production plant operational from FY25, a good ramp-up in volumes and revenues is expected. (Page 10) - EBITDA margins expected to stabilize around 10%-12% at larger volumes, impacting operating profits positively. (Page 7) - Insulator segment contributing steady revenue (~INR 150-160 crores) with good operating margins, supporting overall profitability. (Page 11) - Fund-raising through 65%-75% debt and 25%-35% internal accruals planned to support capex and expansion. (Page 16) - Overall growth outlook remains positive with product mix optimization and market expansion.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current electric bus order book stands at approximately 8,209 buses. - Largest single order of 5,150 buses from MSRTC recently secured. - L1 status in BEST tender for around 2,400 buses, potentially increasing to 3,000 with a 25% option. - Pipeline includes a possible large tender for about 10,000 buses expected in next 5-6 months for 169 cities. - E-tipper truck orders include about 25 orders on hand; 35 e-tippers have been delivered to date. - Various discussions ongoing with private players for e-tipper orders; traction expected to pick up in next 6-12 months. - Delivery of current pending bus orders targeted over 24 months, with ramp-up starting next year as new plant becomes operational.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Olectra Greentech plans to raise funds through a mix of debt and internal accruals due to delayed equity market conditions. - The company targets a debt-to-equity ratio of about 65%-75% debt and 25%-35% internal accruals. - They are negotiating debt at an interest rate of around 8.5% to 9%. - The debt tenor is expected to be about five years, with potential early repayment depending on cash flows. - Equity fundraising plans are on hold until market conditions improve; management aims to finalize equity raise plans before the end of the financial year. - Interim capex expansion is being funded through internal approvals and raised debt. - Orders and production ramp-up are expected to benefit from the fund-raising, especially with the new Seetharampur factory becoming operational next financial year.