Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis
Electric Utilities
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- APS has a 3-year equity plan through 2028 as a base case to fund the current capital expenditure plan.
- Nearly $850 million of equity has been secured through equity forward transactions, with $350 million priced in Q1.
- The stated equity need for 2024 is $650 million; an additional $200 million is available via ATM programs for future needs.
- APS is opportunistically working on additional equity funding beyond what is currently secured.
- For new money needs from 2026 to 2028, APS estimates $1 billion to $1.2 billion to be raised, with several hundred million already addressed.
- APS continues to utilize a mix of debt and equity to maintain a balanced capital structure.
- There are ongoing discussions to revisit financing plans aligned with capital plans, aiming to derisk and fund growth opportunistically.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Construction underway at Red Hawk expansion project: 8 combustion turbines adding ~400 MW natural gas capacity.
- Progress on Desert Sun project: secured major equipment reservations; advancing siting and permitting.
- Ongoing evaluation of bids for new resources in 2029-2031 from all-source RFP; final awards expected later this year.
- Long-term capital plan will support resource and transmission needs based on updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) filings.
- Transmission investment doubled over last 5 years, continuing upward trend to support growing load and reliability.
- Subscription model contracts under negotiation for incremental infrastructure exceeding organic growth.
- Planning for potential gas conversion at retired generation site (Cholla) evaluated continuously.
- Equity plan in place through 2028, with $850 million equity funding available; ongoing assessment of financing aligned with capital needs.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Long-term sales growth guidance through 2030 is projected at 5% to 7%, driven by a diverse customer base and strong additions, particularly from extra high load factor customers.
- First quarter 2026 showed weather-normalized sales growth of 9.4%, with commercial & industrial growth at 14.6% and residential growth at 1.8%.
- Customer growth was strong at 2.2%, near the high end of annual guidance.
- Despite a one-time adjustment last year, current trends show sustained growth without changing the annual sales growth guidance of 4% to 6% for 2026.
- There is a large backlog in the subscription queue (~20 gigawatts uncommitted) indicating potential future incremental load growth as contracts move to commitment.
- Ongoing investment in transmission and generation infrastructure supports expected growth and reliability needs.
- Growth is linked closely to new large customer commitments, with options for bilateral contracting aiding funding and expansion efforts.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- First quarter 2026 earnings showed strong improvement: $0.27 per share vs. loss of $0.04 in Q1 2025.
- Transmission revenue contributed $0.16 per share; benefit expected to continue aligning with annual guidance.
- Sales growth remains robust, with weather-normalized growth of 7.4%-9.4% in Q1; annual guidance remains 4%-6%.
- Long-term sales growth guidance sustained at 5%-7% through 2030, driven by committed high load factor customers and new additions.
- Transmission investment and infrastructure growth contribute to gradual earnings increase.
- Ongoing efforts to reduce regulatory lag and close ROE gap (~50 basis points target by 2029) aim to improve profitability.
- Subscription model and bilateral contracting with large customers expected to support capital funding and earnings stability.
- Management expects consistent earnings growth with continued robust demand and infrastructure investment.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The current uncommitted load backlog or orderbook is just under 20 gigawatts within the service territory.
- Ongoing subscription model negotiations are underway to potentially move a portion of that 20 gigawatts into the committed customer bucket.
- Initial subscription offering sized at 1 to 1.2 gigawatts reflects available generation and transmission capacity, primarily from Desert Sun and associated infrastructure.
- Interest in the subscription model remains robust and consistent with earlier expectations, with active counterparties engaged.
- The process of contracting and filing agreements with the commission is expected to progress throughout the year, providing more clarity on actual committed volumes.
- The large uncommitted load presents ongoing opportunity for conversion to committed contracts as infrastructure and agreements materialize.
