Power Grid CorpnQ3 FY26

Power Grid Corpn Q3 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 266.6P/E: 15.6Market Cap: ₹2.5L CrSector: Power

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 4

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 4
  • Growth in revenue and sales is influenced by shifting project types from RTM to TBCB, affecting financial modeling and revenue recognition.
  • Revenue may see a net minor decline or flat trend due to reduced depreciation and interest on loans from matured projects, offset partially by new project commissions.
  • CAPEX commitments are robust, with Rs. 28,000 crore planned for FY2025-26 and an anticipated increase to Rs. 35,000 crore by FY2027-28, indicating potential revenue growth with project capitalization.
  • The company expects Rs. 20,000 crore capitalization in FY2025-26, increasing to Rs. 25,000-28,000 crore in the subsequent years, driven by project commissioning.
  • Smart metering and data center segments are emerging business areas but currently have low EBITDA margins (10-15%), slightly impacting consolidated EBITDA.
  • Large opportunities exist in the Brahmaputra basin and green energy transmission projects, signaling long-term volume and revenue growth potential.
  • Despite EBITDA variations, profit margins remain stable due to fixed return on equity.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • FY '28 CAPEX is planned at Rs. 45,000 crores (up from Rs. 35,000 crores in FY '27), indicating growth in asset base and future revenues.
  • Despite some EBITDA softness due to smart metering business inclusion (lower margin) and project life cycle effects, PAT and profit guidance remain stable due to regulated RoE.
  • Capitalization is increasing with expected project commissioning around Rs. 20,000 crores in FY '26, rising to Rs. 25,000-28,000 crores in FY '27 and FY '28, supporting revenue growth.
  • RoW (Right of Way) challenges and government approvals are main execution risks; resolutions in progress.
  • Earnings growth moderated by depreciation and interest reduction in older assets offset by new asset commissioning.
  • Consolidated PAT shows growth excluding other income variability.
  • EPS expected to grow aligned with profit growth; current EPS around Rs. 7.74 per share with improving capitalization trajectory.
  • Overall, strong long-term growth driven by increased CAPEX, stable regulated returns, and expanding project execution.

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Fundraise plans

  • No explicit mention of any current or future fundraising through debt or equity in the transcript provided.
  • Discussion mainly revolves around capex, capitalization, project execution, and equipment procurement.
  • Financing details focus on loan interest rates and regulatory frameworks but no new debt or equity raising plans were disclosed.
  • Existing challenges in project execution and regulatory approvals were discussed, but no reference to raising capital via markets.
  • The company is focusing on managing projects, RoW issues, and equipment supply, implying current funding is through ongoing operations and planned capex budgets.

Order book

  • Works in hand: Approximately Rs. 1,52,000 crore
  • - Out of which Rs. 1,03,000 crore are from Transparency in Bidding (TBCB) projects
  • - Rs. 37,100 crore under Regulated Tariff Mechanism (RTM) new orders
  • - Rs. 9,542 crore ongoing RTM projects
  • - Rs. 2,653 crore from other segments like data centers, cross-border projects, smart metering
  • New orders received domestically: 15
  • Ongoing domestic orders: 81
  • International orders received: 3
  • Ongoing international projects: 14
  • Total bid pipeline for balance fiscal (transmission): Around Rs. 45,000 crore (may be higher including HVDC projects)

Capex plans

Yes
  • FY '27 Capex: Rs. 35,000 crore
  • FY '28 Capex: Rs. 45,000 crore (estimate)
  • Current FY Capex expected to exceed Rs. 28,000 crore, possibly up to Rs. 30,000 crore
  • Strategic investment in smart metering business included in consol; EBITDA lower due to this (10-15% margin)
  • Participation in battery energy storage projects ongoing, with some tender losses but continued bidding
  • Andaman HVDC undersea project: Still under government discussion, no clear approval yet
  • Leh-Ladakh HVDC project: Tender called, received one bid rejected; likely to be replaced by AC project with revised cost estimates around Rs. 30,000 crore
  • Data center business delayed, expected commissioning by Q4 with 1,000 racks capacity
  • Rs. 3.5 lakh crores of transmission tendering pending over next three years under ISTS, some projects expected to be awarded in this fiscal
  • Equipment challenges (transformers, GIS, HVDC) addressed by early procurement and local manufacturing initiatives

How does Power Grid Corpn rank vs peers in Power?

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