Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd
Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
Power
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No explicit mention of any current or future fundraising through debt or equity in the transcript provided.
- Discussion mainly revolves around capex, capitalization, project execution, and equipment procurement.
- Financing details focus on loan interest rates and regulatory frameworks but no new debt or equity raising plans were disclosed.
- Existing challenges in project execution and regulatory approvals were discussed, but no reference to raising capital via markets.
- The company is focusing on managing projects, RoW issues, and equipment supply, implying current funding is through ongoing operations and planned capex budgets.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- FY '27 Capex: Rs. 35,000 crore
- FY '28 Capex: Rs. 45,000 crore (estimate)
- Current FY Capex expected to exceed Rs. 28,000 crore, possibly up to Rs. 30,000 crore
- Strategic investment in smart metering business included in consol; EBITDA lower due to this (10-15% margin)
- Participation in battery energy storage projects ongoing, with some tender losses but continued bidding
- Andaman HVDC undersea project: Still under government discussion, no clear approval yet
- Leh-Ladakh HVDC project: Tender called, received one bid rejected; likely to be replaced by AC project with revised cost estimates around Rs. 30,000 crore
- Data center business delayed, expected commissioning by Q4 with 1,000 racks capacity
- Rs. 3.5 lakh crores of transmission tendering pending over next three years under ISTS, some projects expected to be awarded in this fiscal
- Equipment challenges (transformers, GIS, HVDC) addressed by early procurement and local manufacturing initiatives
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Growth in revenue and sales is influenced by shifting project types from RTM to TBCB, affecting financial modeling and revenue recognition.
- Revenue may see a net minor decline or flat trend due to reduced depreciation and interest on loans from matured projects, offset partially by new project commissions.
- CAPEX commitments are robust, with Rs. 28,000 crore planned for FY2025-26 and an anticipated increase to Rs. 35,000 crore by FY2027-28, indicating potential revenue growth with project capitalization.
- The company expects Rs. 20,000 crore capitalization in FY2025-26, increasing to Rs. 25,000-28,000 crore in the subsequent years, driven by project commissioning.
- Smart metering and data center segments are emerging business areas but currently have low EBITDA margins (10-15%), slightly impacting consolidated EBITDA.
- Large opportunities exist in the Brahmaputra basin and green energy transmission projects, signaling long-term volume and revenue growth potential.
- Despite EBITDA variations, profit margins remain stable due to fixed return on equity.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- FY '28 CAPEX is planned at Rs. 45,000 crores (up from Rs. 35,000 crores in FY '27), indicating growth in asset base and future revenues.
- Despite some EBITDA softness due to smart metering business inclusion (lower margin) and project life cycle effects, PAT and profit guidance remain stable due to regulated RoE.
- Capitalization is increasing with expected project commissioning around Rs. 20,000 crores in FY '26, rising to Rs. 25,000-28,000 crores in FY '27 and FY '28, supporting revenue growth.
- RoW (Right of Way) challenges and government approvals are main execution risks; resolutions in progress.
- Earnings growth moderated by depreciation and interest reduction in older assets offset by new asset commissioning.
- Consolidated PAT shows growth excluding other income variability.
- EPS expected to grow aligned with profit growth; current EPS around Rs. 7.74 per share with improving capitalization trajectory.
- Overall, strong long-term growth driven by increased CAPEX, stable regulated returns, and expanding project execution.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Works in hand: Approximately Rs. 1,52,000 crore
- Out of which Rs. 1,03,000 crore are from Transparency in Bidding (TBCB) projects
- Rs. 37,100 crore under Regulated Tariff Mechanism (RTM) new orders
- Rs. 9,542 crore ongoing RTM projects
- Rs. 2,653 crore from other segments like data centers, cross-border projects, smart metering
- New orders received domestically: 15
- Ongoing domestic orders: 81
- International orders received: 3
- Ongoing international projects: 14
- Total bid pipeline for balance fiscal (transmission): Around Rs. 45,000 crore (may be higher including HVDC projects)
