Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd
Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Auto Components
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- FY 2024 Capex: Post dividend and debt reduction (Rs. 100-150 Cr), remaining cash will be deployed to expand forging capacities and value-add capabilities (Page 21).
- FY 2025 Capex: Planned, but specifics not detailed; investments will be calibrated with own earnings (Page 10).
- TSUYO JV (51% stake): Rs. 100 Cr investment planned in phased manner over ~5 years to scale e-axle and transmission solutions, targeting Rs. 500 Cr revenue potential (Page 18).
- Railway wheels JV: Approx. Rs. 1,200 Cr capex (51% share), production to start late FY2026, aiming for similar margins as standalone business (Pages 4-5, 21).
- Solar Plant: 7.82 MW rooftop solar project costing Rs. 35 Cr, expected to reduce energy costs, installation within 9 months (Pages 3, 19).
- Capex for JMT Auto and ACIL acquisitions: ~Rs. 100 Cr to modernize plants post-acquisition (Page 5).
- Debt reduction remains capital allocation priority alongside growth capex (Pages 7, 21).
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- FY2024 expected to have strong volume and revenue growth, with tonnage growth guidance of 15-20%.
- Confident of continuing growth trajectory given strong order book, customer visibility, and global scenario.
- Europe revenue grew to 15% of total within two years, indicating strong global customer acquisition and growth.
- Railways business expected to almost double sales in the coming year, increasing from ~3% to over 5% of total revenue.
- Oil and gas segment expected to increase share of business by 100-150 basis points.
- Capacity ramp-up in fabrication plant, warm forging, and new equipment installation to support growth.
- Continuous improvements in product mix and margins expected to enhance profitability along with volume growth.
- No specific long-term revenue target given, but management expects growth to potentially exceed current expectations.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Naresh Jalan expects continued strong volume and revenue growth in FY2024, targeting 15%-20% tonnage growth similar to the previous year.
- Margin improvement is anticipated with better operating efficiency, automation, and structure improvements, leading to sustained or better EBITDA margins.
- Warm forging margins are expected to improve by 100 to 150 bps in the next six months due to modernization.
- Despite raw material price fluctuations, margins remain insulated and are expected to continue improving.
- The company is confident of outperforming the market, especially with improved product mix and increased content per vehicle.
- EPS growth is supported by volume increase, better margin, and tax rate reduction to 25% in FY2024.
- Working capital days are targeted to reduce from 108 to around 100, supporting efficient cash flow management and profit growth.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- North American customer has a Long-Term Agreement (LTA) with global contracts backed by steel and inflation adjustments (steel quarterly, inflation and energy annually) (Page 19).
- Ramp-up plant has immediate order book for capacity utilization, with optimum levels achievable within 6-8 months; production capacity is almost sold-out (Page 12).
- Europe revenue has grown to about 15% from zero within two years, indicating strong customer conversion and order gains (Page 11).
- Railways order book expected to nearly double sales from about 3% to over 5% of total revenue this year (Page 15).
- Oil and gas business share expected to increase by 100-150 basis points (Page 15).
- New orders in the railway segment for manufacturing approximately 200,000 wheels annually, with a JVs capex around Rs. 1,200 Crores (Page 5).
- Overall, the company anticipates strong growth in volumes and revenue for FY2024 with a focus on increasing market share across geographies (Pages 13, 17).
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company is focused on reducing standalone debt by Rs. 100-150 Crores in FY2024.
- Debt limits remain intact, and commitment costs to banks are factored in.
- Consolidated debt is expected to remain stable or reduce, depending on acquisitions and cash flows.
- No explicit mention of new fundraising through equity or debt was made at the current time.
- Equity contribution of Rs. 180 Crores is planned over three years for the railway JV.
- Capex (around Rs. 100 Crores in FY2024) will be funded through existing cash flows and debt reduction.
- Acquisitions like JMT and ACIL will be funded as per cash flows; no additional debt increase is anticipated.
- Overall, the company plans to use internal cash flows for growth and acquisitions, aiming to decrease debt gradually.
