Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No update on new fundraising through debt or equity was disclosed. - The company stated they will inform investors at the right opportune time regarding any such plans. - Current guidance includes maintaining working capital and consolidated debt at present levels, without mentioning fresh fundraising. - The promoter contribution in a JV project increased slightly, reducing debt somewhat, but overall project cost remained the same. - No extra costs incurred on credit, indicating stable financial management. - Other income includes interest from QIP funds parked temporarily in liquid funds, expected to go down as funds are utilized, alongside a reduction in finance costs.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Proposal to add six-cylinder crankshaft machining facility at ACIL with an additional 20,000 metric tonnes capacity, valued at about INR 300 Crores; included in subsidiary capex guidance, no extra capex beyond that expected. - Standalone capex for current/future year around INR 400+ Crores, covering capacity additions, Mexico plant setup, and brownfield expansions. - Mexico plant currently non-operational, expected to generate INR 8-10 Crores revenues this year, with significant ramp-up next year. - Cold forging capacity of 25,000 tonnes expected to ramp up fully by FY26-FY27, targeting INR 250 Crores topline revenue. - JV investment for railway wheels totals about INR 210-240 Crores over next 2 years, with some spillover from FY24. - Maintenance capex estimated around INR 40-50 Crores annually. - Management consulting engagement ongoing for about 18 months aimed at operational improvements (specifics undisclosed).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company aspires to achieve 15% to 20% volume growth overall in the coming year. - Export sales are expected to increase by at least 200 basis points in the sales mix, improving realization and margin. - Domestic market growth is forecasted at 10% to 12% over the next year, with market stabilization underway. - For the next 3 years, export and domestic revenue mix is expected to approach 50:50, with exports offering better margins. - The cold forging capacity planned to ramp up by FY '26-FY '27, targeting INR 250 Crores revenue at full utilization. - Non-automotive segment is expected to grow to 40% of revenue in 3 to 5 years, from current levels, driven significantly by railway orders. - Passenger vehicle (PV) segment expected to reach double-digit percentage revenue within two years. - Subsidiaries and acquisitions expected to contribute to 15% to 20% volume growth in consolidated numbers.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company aspires for a consolidated volume growth of 15% to 20% annually, supported by both domestic and export markets. - Export sales are expected to increase by at least 200 basis points in the revenue mix this year, with better realizations and margins compared to domestic sales. - Gross margin sustainable near 50% with potential for slight improvement due to favorable export mix. - EBITDA margins expected to improve by 100 to 150 basis points at the consolidated level going forward. - The company targets a 60% automotive and 40% non-automotive revenue mix over the next 3 to 5 years, with non-auto segments (railway, mining, oil & gas) contributing significant growth. - Non-auto business has better margins and is expected to drive margin expansion. - Net Profit After Tax grew 38% YoY in FY24, indicating strong earnings momentum. - Full ramp-up of new capacities (cold forging, Mexico plant) expected by FY26 supporting revenue and profit growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Ramkrishna Forgings aims for a consolidated volume growth of 15% to 20% in FY25, supported by a strong order backlog. - The cold forging capacity, expected to be operational from Q1 FY25, is fully booked with orders. - The Vande Bharat train set order is for 32 train sets over 2 years, with potential expansion to 100-150 sets, likely extending bookings up to 2029. - The companyโ€™s order book includes a strategic USD 220 million contract over 10 years in the light vehicle segment across North America. - JMT Autoโ€™s forging and machining divisions starting production from May-July with expected revenue between INR 100-150 Crores for the full year. - Multitech Auto and ACIL subsidiaries are on track, targeting INR 525 Crores and INR 125 Crores revenue respectively. - Mexico plant for PV segment equipment setup is underway; INR 8-10 Crores expected revenue this year, increasing substantially next year.