Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd
Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Auto Components
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
๐ฐfundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No update on new fundraising through debt or equity was disclosed.
- The company stated they will inform investors at the right opportune time regarding any such plans.
- Current guidance includes maintaining working capital and consolidated debt at present levels, without mentioning fresh fundraising.
- The promoter contribution in a JV project increased slightly, reducing debt somewhat, but overall project cost remained the same.
- No extra costs incurred on credit, indicating stable financial management.
- Other income includes interest from QIP funds parked temporarily in liquid funds, expected to go down as funds are utilized, alongside a reduction in finance costs.
๐๏ธcapex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Proposal to add six-cylinder crankshaft machining facility at ACIL with an additional 20,000 metric tonnes capacity, valued at about INR 300 Crores; included in subsidiary capex guidance, no extra capex beyond that expected.
- Standalone capex for current/future year around INR 400+ Crores, covering capacity additions, Mexico plant setup, and brownfield expansions.
- Mexico plant currently non-operational, expected to generate INR 8-10 Crores revenues this year, with significant ramp-up next year.
- Cold forging capacity of 25,000 tonnes expected to ramp up fully by FY26-FY27, targeting INR 250 Crores topline revenue.
- JV investment for railway wheels totals about INR 210-240 Crores over next 2 years, with some spillover from FY24.
- Maintenance capex estimated around INR 40-50 Crores annually.
- Management consulting engagement ongoing for about 18 months aimed at operational improvements (specifics undisclosed).
๐revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- The company aspires to achieve 15% to 20% volume growth overall in the coming year.
- Export sales are expected to increase by at least 200 basis points in the sales mix, improving realization and margin.
- Domestic market growth is forecasted at 10% to 12% over the next year, with market stabilization underway.
- For the next 3 years, export and domestic revenue mix is expected to approach 50:50, with exports offering better margins.
- The cold forging capacity planned to ramp up by FY '26-FY '27, targeting INR 250 Crores revenue at full utilization.
- Non-automotive segment is expected to grow to 40% of revenue in 3 to 5 years, from current levels, driven significantly by railway orders.
- Passenger vehicle (PV) segment expected to reach double-digit percentage revenue within two years.
- Subsidiaries and acquisitions expected to contribute to 15% to 20% volume growth in consolidated numbers.
๐margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company aspires for a consolidated volume growth of 15% to 20% annually, supported by both domestic and export markets.
- Export sales are expected to increase by at least 200 basis points in the revenue mix this year, with better realizations and margins compared to domestic sales.
- Gross margin sustainable near 50% with potential for slight improvement due to favorable export mix.
- EBITDA margins expected to improve by 100 to 150 basis points at the consolidated level going forward.
- The company targets a 60% automotive and 40% non-automotive revenue mix over the next 3 to 5 years, with non-auto segments (railway, mining, oil & gas) contributing significant growth.
- Non-auto business has better margins and is expected to drive margin expansion.
- Net Profit After Tax grew 38% YoY in FY24, indicating strong earnings momentum.
- Full ramp-up of new capacities (cold forging, Mexico plant) expected by FY26 supporting revenue and profit growth.
๐orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Ramkrishna Forgings aims for a consolidated volume growth of 15% to 20% in FY25, supported by a strong order backlog.
- The cold forging capacity, expected to be operational from Q1 FY25, is fully booked with orders.
- The Vande Bharat train set order is for 32 train sets over 2 years, with potential expansion to 100-150 sets, likely extending bookings up to 2029.
- The companyโs order book includes a strategic USD 220 million contract over 10 years in the light vehicle segment across North America.
- JMT Autoโs forging and machining divisions starting production from May-July with expected revenue between INR 100-150 Crores for the full year.
- Multitech Auto and ACIL subsidiaries are on track, targeting INR 525 Crores and INR 125 Crores revenue respectively.
- Mexico plant for PV segment equipment setup is underway; INR 8-10 Crores expected revenue this year, increasing substantially next year.
